Arkansas Derby Picks —Betting Preview and Predictions (Mar 28)

Crucial action on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is set for Oaklawn Park this weekend, as the G1 Arkansas Derby offers 100 qualifying points. Find the odds and our Arkansas Derby picks for the 2026 edition here.

Odds

Arkansas Derby Recent Winners

Arkansas Derby: Event Information

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Race Preview

The Arkansas Derby has a rich history of producing key contenders for the opening leg of the Triple Crown, with Sunny Halo, Smarty Jones, and American Pharoah all completing the double.

Irad Ortiz will be aboard the red-hot favorite this weekend, as Renegade is expected to cement his Derby claims for trainer Todd Pletcher. The three-year-old son of Into Mischief was excellent on his return to action, beating Wayne’s Law by three lengths in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Was twice second behind Paladin last year, highlighting a high level of form.

It wouldn’t be wise to give up on Blackout Time just yet for the combination of Kenneth McPeek and Brian Hernandez. The Not This Time Colt was an excellent winner of a maiden special weight in August, before finishing within three lengths of Ted Noffey in Grade One company. Likely needed his comeback run last time when fourth in the G2 Rebel.

Napoleon Solo and Redland Rebels will have questions to answer following disappointing runs in the G2 Fountain of Youth and G3 Tampa Bay Derby, respectively. Hard to make a case for Bricklin after his third in the Sunland Derby last month.

Litmus Test represents the Bob Baffert barn on Saturday, but the son of Nyquist has proven expensive to follow. Has won just twice from six career starts, and failed to lay a glove on Class President and Silent Tactic when well beaten in the G2 Rebel last time.

The latter could be a fascinating contender for Mark Casse on Saturday. The son of Tactus has won once from three starts in stakes company, and was only narrowly touched off last time after previously landing the G3 Southwest Stakes by three lengths.

Arkansas Derby Picks

I think Silent Tactic is being massively overlooked for trainer Mark Casse this weekend.

The three-year-old’s stamina will come into full effect at the track on Saturday, and his two placed efforts at Oaklawn already indicate that he handles the course. A low draw suits his chances, and Cristian Torres has been aboard the selection for his two career-best efforts.