Betting on the Super Bowl coin toss: A true 50/50 shot?

At this point, it’s well established that if it’s something that happens during the Super Bowl, then you can bet on it. Betting on the outcome of the coin toss ahead of Super Bowl LX is unique, however, as it doesn’t actually have anything to do with football.

In theory, it should be a straight 50/50 shot to get it right, but is that really how it works?

Super Bowl LX Coin Toss Odds

Sportsbooks need to make money, so you’ll never see a supposed 50/50 shot where both outcomes are given +100 odds, but BetOnline is giving the closest possible odds on the market ahead of the Super Bowl between the Patriots and Seahawks:

With some of the more established US sportsbooks like FanDuel giving odds around -110, BetOnline’s odds are the best in the market, with a super skinny margin for the sportsbook.

Can history tell us anything about which way to go?

Is a Coin Toss a straight 50/50 shot?

In theory, yes, it is. There are only two outcomes, so in practical terms, there’s a 50% chance that it will land on either heads or tails.

However..

Mathematicians argue that certain variables can skew the probability slightly in either direction. This includes a slightly increased likelihood that the coin will land on the same face that starts on your thumb.

The difference isn’t huge, it’s 51/49, but it is something to bear in mind. It’s not an official rule, but the coin toss before NFL games tends to start with the heads side facing up, meaning that tails does have a slight theoretical edge.

How has this played out in recent Super Bowls?

Recent Super Bowl Coin Toss Outcomes

A look at the last 10 Super Bowls supports the theory that tails has a slight advantage: 70% of the coin tosses came up tails, while the other 30% went heads.

What is even more interesting is that in the previous 10 Super Bowls, only one team has won the coin toss and gone on to win the game.

Super Bowl LX Will the Team that Wins Coin Toss Win the Game?

Because there’s no direct correlation between the ability of a football team to win a game and guess a near 50/50 coin flip, these odds are the same, but it’s interesting to note the trends from the past ten years.

Is it Worth betting on the Super Bowl coin toss?

Ultimately, there’s no concrete data in either direction to help strongly predict the outcome, but it’s rare that you’ll find odds this good on something that literally comes down to the toss of a coin.

If you also consider that BetOnline has a welcome offer with no rollover, then it could be worth using that to bet on the coin toss and hope for an easy and quick win:

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