Published Jun 21, 8:12pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 21, 8:12pm ET
Updated Jun 21, 8:12pm ET
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| New York Mets | -110 |
| Chicago Cubs | -110 |
Shota Imanaga is 4-6 with a 4.36 ERA. His season has been inconsistent after a dominant April, and his FIP of 4.63 confirms the underlying contact quality has been harder than his early-season form suggested. His last-three FIP of 5.19 reflects a pitcher who has been getting hit in recent outings. What works in his favor Monday is the opponent. Imanaga doesn't need to replicate his April no-hit bid or his 11-strikeout gem against the Phillies. He needs to give Chicago five or six innings of manageable baseball against a lineup that ranks near the bottom of the NL in OPS.
The Cubs are 40-37 and have won six of their last ten. Their .738 OPS is 68 points better than the Mets' .670, the clearest lineup edge on Monday's slate. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki anchor Chicago's run-producing options.
Kodai Senga is 0-5 with a 9.00 ERA. His FIP of 6.86 is already a poor number, and his last-three FIP of 11.15 reflects starts where hitters have been squaring him up consistently. He went 1.1 innings against the Phillies in April and was pulled after losing fastball command entirely, a pattern that has repeated itself across his worst outings. Senga has the stuff to get through lineups when everything is working — his ghost fork is one of the better individual pitches in the NL on its best days. Right now nothing is working.
New York is 34-42 and 5-5 in their last ten. The Mets' bullpen FIP of 3.55 with a 25.9% strikeout rate is legitimately strong, and it will matter when Senga exits early, which he has been doing frequently.
Senga's last-three FIP of 11.15 is the worst mark of any starter on Monday's slate. Chicago holds the lineup edge by 68 OPS points. The market has this as a dead coin flip at -110 both sides. The pitching gap says it isn't.
Cubs.
Pick: Chicago Cubs -110
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Pick
Chicago Cubs -110
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