Published May 27, 10:49am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 27, 10:49am ET
Updated May 27, 10:49am ET
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| New York Mets | -122 |
| Cincinnati Reds | +101 |
Andrew Abbott is 3.97 ERA and 4.79 FIP. His ERA has been running below his underlying numbers; the surface result has been more favorable than the contact quality and walk rates suggest it should be. He has been a functional starter for Cincinnati, capable of giving them quality innings when his command is sharp, but the 3.97 has had some help that the 4.79 does not support.
Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart give the Reds their most dangerous bats. The Cincinnati lineup has been one of the better offensive units in the NL Central this month, and they have the individual contributors to score against a pitcher who has been showing signs of regression.
Huascar Brazobán has a 1.73 ERA on the season. His FIP is 3.46. His last-three FIP is 5.55.
That last number is the honest version of where he is right now. He has been getting hit in recent starts in ways the ERA has not yet fully captured, and expecting six clean innings from him tonight requires ignoring the trajectory. He will not go deep tonight — the Mets know what the numbers say.
What the Mets have behind him is the real argument. Their bullpen's FIP is 3.42. Cincinnati's is 5.16. That is a 1.74-run gap in the relief arms, and it matters significantly in a game where the starting pitcher is likely to exit early. Juan Soto leads the lineup and has been the most dangerous individual hitter in the Mets' order all season; when the offense gets them a lead and the pen takes over, New York has a major structural advantage.
Brazobán has been shaky over his last three starts and is unlikely to go deep. The Mets' bullpen has a 1.74 FIP advantage over Cincinnati's. When the game reaches the sixth inning tonight, New York has one of the largest relief edges in the league working in their favor. That is the real pick here, not the starter, but what comes after him. Mets tonight.
Pick: New York Mets -122
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Pick
New York Mets -122
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