Published May 22, 8:17am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 22, 8:17am ET
Updated May 22, 8:20am ET
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| New York Mets | -126 |
| Miami Marlins | +105 |
Myers is 3.41 ERA with a 4.43 FIP. His ERA has run ahead of what his underlying stuff has warranted. Hitters have been making contact at a rate that should produce more runs than the surface number shows, which means the 3.41 has required some help from strand rates and sequencing to hold. He is not a bad pitcher. He is a pitcher whose results have been slightly more flattering than the process deserves. In a game where the opposing starter is running the same story, the distinction between the two becomes the tiebreaker.
Miami's lineup at .696 OPS carries a real advantage over what the Mets bring to the plate. James Wood and the top of the order have been Miami's most reliable run producers, and against a Mets starting pitcher whose ERA is similarly propped up, the lineup edge gives the Marlins a path to scoring enough to win this game. The Mets are 7-3 in their last ten, which the market has priced in. The question is whether recent form changes the underlying numbers.
Martín Pérez is 2.85 ERA with a 3.98 FIP. His ERA has also been outrunning his FIP by more than a full run, which means New York's starter is in the same position as Miami's — results that look better than the process. The 3.98 FIP is still a reasonable number for a mid-rotation starter, but the 2.85 ERA has been carrying more credit than it has earned. When opposing hitters start catching up to Pérez's patterns, the ERA and the FIP will converge somewhere in between.
The Mets lineup at .655 OPS has not been the team's strength this season. Juan Soto remains dangerous, and the offense has individual contributors capable of driving in runs, but the team OPS sits below average for a lineup at home against a visiting pitcher in the 4.43 FIP range. The Mets have been winning games despite the lineup, not because of it, and that kind of run tends to be fragile.
Both starters have been getting better results than their FIPs say they deserve. Miami's lineup is 41 OPS points better than New York's. The Mets have been the hotter team and at +105 on the lineup edge, Miami doesn't need to be. It just needs to be the more accurate pick.
Pick: Miami Marlins +105
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Pick
Miami Marlins +105
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