Published Apr 11, 4:58am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Apr 11, 4:58am ET
Updated Apr 11, 5:31am ET
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| Detroit Tigers | -149 |
| Miami Marlins | +123 |
Junk had the lowest walk rate in baseball last year with a 2.9% walk rate across 110 innings, the best single-season mark in Marlins history. He went 6-4 with a 4.17 ERA overall that season.
This year he's earned the final spot in the rotation, nudging out Braxton Garrett in spring training. Two starts in, 0-1, 3.09 ERA. Eleven innings, 12 hits, eight strikeouts, two walks, one homer.
Miami is hitting .257 with 10 home runs. Xavier Edwards leads the team at .385 with a .439 OBP. Liam Hicks has three homers and 13 RBI while hitting .289. The Marlins are 5-1 in day games this season and 8-6 overall.
Mize was Detroit's best pitcher in 2025. Went 14-6, 3.87 ERA in 149 innings. Made the All-Star team. Career highs across the board. The first overall pick from 2018 finally put together the kind of season everyone expected when the Tigers drafted him out of Auburn.
To start this year, he has two starts, 0-1, 5.23 ERA. Ten innings, 11 hits, 13 strikeouts, five walks, two homers. The strikeout rate is fine. The walks and home runs are not.
Detroit is hitting .235 with eight home runs. Colt Keith leads the team at .364. Dillon Dingler has eight RBI. Kerry Carpenter has two homers and seven RBI. The Tigers are 5-9 but 3-1 at home and got the shutout yesterday.
Detroit won yesterday but Paddack was the matchup that favored them. Today's different. Junk has been better than Mize through two starts, Miami is 5-1 in day games, and the Marlins are the better team by record. The -149 on a 5-9 club at home is a lot to ask. Take Miami.
Pick: Marlins +123
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Pick
Marlins +123
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