March Madness Betting Myths That Cost Bettors Money Every Year

Author

Tom McNeil

Fact checked by

Ralitza Angelova

Updated on

February 27, 2026

With over $3.1B expected to be wagered on March Madness, it’s the most popular betting event for US bettors. As a consequence, betting advice is everywhere. Some of it’s solid, some of it’s pure myth, and that’s a key reason bettors lose money on March Madness.

As the NCAA Tournament approaches, millions of bettors enter the market with the same assumptions, many of which feel intuitive but don’t reflect how March Madness betting actually works.

Millions of dollars are lost every year because of common March Madness betting mistakes. After years of watching the same patterns repeat, I’ve noticed that many bettors fall into the same traps without realizing it, so let’s take a look at how and why so many March Madness betting myths exist.

Why March Madness Creates So Many Betting Myths

The tournament is unlike any other betting environment, and its scale and structure create ideal conditions for March Madness betting misconceptions to spread. Even experienced people who follow college basketball all season can get swept up in the chaos.

Here are the key reasons why these common March Madness betting errors and misconceptions persist.

The Most Common March Madness Betting Myths

With an ever‑growing variety of March Madness betting markets, there are more misconceptions than ever. These are the six key takeaways from my years of betting on the NCAA Tournament, and the beliefs that trip up bettors every year.

These beliefs show up every March, and even people with years of betting experience recognize some of these patterns

Myth #1: Top Seeds Are “Safe Bets”

Why people believe it:
Top seeds win more often, advance deeper, and dominate highlight reels all season. It feels intuitive that the strongest teams should also be the most reliable bets.

Why the market already prices it in:
Sportsbooks know top seeds are public favorites. As a result, these teams often carry inflated spreads and heavily shaded moneylines. The perceived safety is already baked into the number long before bettors take action. Casual bettors also like to experience the winning feeling, so going with the “safe” option is extremely common.

What bettors misunderstand:
Winning the game and covering the spread are two different outcomes. Even elite teams have off days. Sometimes a bad matchup can leave them simply trying to find a way to win the game, never mind covering the spread. Markets are based on probability rather than reputation.

Myth #2: You Have to Bet Every Game

Why people believe it:
The early rounds offer a nonstop slate of games, and it’s easy to feel like skipping one means missing out. The tournament’s pace encourages sustained engagement; the action barely stops long enough to regroup.

Why this thinking can be misleading:
Betting on every game creates overexposure. The more decisions someone makes in a short window, the more fatigue affects judgment. The schedule’s intensity works against consistent evaluation.

In my experience, especially with parlays, picking every game often leads to a ticket falling short by one leg.

What bettors misunderstand:
There’s a difference between watching March Madness for entertainment and approaching the market with discipline. The tournament rewards patience, but the environment nudges bettors toward volume.

Myth #3: Betting With Your Bracket Gives You an Edge

Why people believe it:
Most fans spend time researching their bracket picks, so those choices feel informed. When a bracket leans heavily toward certain teams or outcomes, it’s natural to carry that confidence into betting markets.

Why the market doesn’t care about brackets:
Brackets are built around narratives, long-term paths, and personal expectations. Betting markets, by contrast, price individual matchups independently. What makes sense in a bracket often doesn’t translate to how a single game is valued.

What bettors misunderstand:
Bracket thinking encourages emotional and confirmation biases. People seek bets that validate their predictions rather than ones grounded in objective pricing. Most of us have filled out brackets that influenced our thinking without noticing.

Myth #4: March Madness Is Too Random to Bet Seriously

Why people believe it:
Upsets, buzzer‑beaters, and dramatic swings make the tournament feel chaotic. When memorable moments define public perception, the entire event can appear unpredictable.

Why the market isn’t random:
Variance is not the same as randomness. Sportsbooks model each matchup, adjust for pace, efficiency, and matchup characteristics, and monitor market activity throughout the week. Every line reflects deliberate pricing, even if the outcomes sometimes surprise viewers.

What bettors misunderstand:
The presence of big moments doesn’t mean the underlying market is unpredictable. Variance is part of the design, but randomness is not. Favorites still win more often than not, but Cinderella stories dominate the headlines.

Myth #5: Line Movement Means “Vegas Knows Something”

Why people believe it:
When a line moves, especially quickly, it can appear to be a reaction to secret information or insider knowledge.

Why lines actually move:
Most movement is driven by balancing risk, reacting to sharp wagers, or adjusting to public money. Books aim to manage exposure, not predict results. A shift in odds doesn’t necessarily signal a hidden storyline.

For a full look at why and how lines move, you can read our full guide here (internal link to lines moving blog)

What bettors misunderstand:
Interpreting every movement as meaningful gives line activity more weight than it deserves. Market dynamics are far more about liquidity and risk management than mysterious insight.

Myth #6: Underdogs Are Always the Smart Play

Why people believe it:
March Madness is famous for underdog stories. When upsets dominate headlines, it creates the impression that underdogs consistently outperform expectations.

Why the market already prices this in:
Sportsbooks account for public enthusiasm around underdogs. If anything receives excessive attention, spreads adjust. There’s no inherent edge in simply siding with the team getting points.

What bettors misunderstand:
Underdogs are not automatically undervalued. Context, matchups, pace, efficiency, and style are already reflected in the line. The perception of value often comes from narrative, not pricing.

Why These Myths Persist Every Year

NCAA tournament betting myths don’t survive by accident; they repeat because the tournament’s psychology encourages them. Even experienced bettors fall into the same patterns, not because they lack knowledge, but because the environment amplifies certain biases.

These beliefs don’t fade over time; they repeat themselves for the same psychological reasons every spring.

Recency Bias
March Madness is defined by memorable moments: unexpected upsets, last‑second shots, and dramatic swings. These moments stick in the mind far more than the quiet, predictable outcomes that make up most of the tournament. When bettors recall what happened “last year” or even “yesterday,” those standout events can overshadow the broader probabilities, making myths feel more believable than they really are.

Media Amplification
The NCAA Tournament generates round‑the‑clock coverage. Highlight packages, social media clips, and commentary panels all push the same types of stories forward: giant‑killers, miracle runs, “teams of destiny,” and narratives that demand attention. These amplified storylines can make rare outcomes feel common, and common outcomes feel uninteresting. When stories get repeated enough, they start to resemble hidden insight rather than entertainment.

Social Betting Environments
March Madness is one of the most communal forms of betting of the year. Office pools, group chats, watch parties, and bracket challenges create a shared ecosystem where opinions spread quickly. A single confident claim, such as “this underdog is live” or “Vegas knows something,” can ripple through a group and become accepted as truth, even when it’s based on emotion or incomplete information. The social element turns myths into shorthand that people repeat, year after year.

These dynamics don’t mean bettors are making unreasonable assumptions. They demonstrate how the structure of March Madness reinforces familiar misconceptions, which is why the same beliefs recur every spring.

How Understanding These Myths Changes the Way You Bet

Recognizing these March Madness betting myths doesn’t tell you what to bet, but it does change how you see the tournament. Awareness shifts the experience in subtle but meaningful ways, especially for bettors who want a clearer picture of what’s really happening in the market.

Better Expectations
Once you understand how narratives, probabilities, and market pricing actually interact, the tournament feels less chaotic. Upsets, line movement, and unexpected results become easier to frame as part of the event’s natural variance rather than signs of something you “missed.” This creates more realistic expectations regarding what betting outcomes entail.

Better Discipline
When familiar myths lose their pull, so do the impulses they create, chasing underdogs, forcing action on every game, or treating brackets as betting roadmaps. You start to recognize when a reaction is emotional rather than market‑driven. That shift doesn’t tell you what to wager on; it simply helps you stay grounded.

A Better Long‑Term Experience
March Madness becomes more enjoyable when you see it for what it is: a high‑variance tournament with efficient markets and unpredictable storylines. Understanding the psychology behind common beliefs makes the highs and lows feel less personal. I’ve found that the tournament becomes more enjoyable when you understand how much of the chaos is baked into the format.

How March Madness Betting Actually Works

By the time March Madness begins, every line you see has already been shaped by thousands of data points, real‑time market behavior, and the unique structure of the tournament itself. Understanding how these elements fit together doesn’t tell you who will win, but it does make the market easier to interpret.

Odds Pricing
Sportsbooks set their opening numbers based on power ratings, efficiency metrics, matchup factors, and pace projections. These lines aren’t predictions; they’re probability models designed to reflect how each team is expected to perform under tournament conditions. As information changes, the pricing adjusts accordingly.

Market Behavior
Once lines are released, the market takes over. Sharp bettors, public action, and risk‑management decisions all influence how odds move throughout the week. Books aren’t trying to “signal something” with every adjustment; they’re trying to balance exposure. Most of what bettors interpret as insider knowledge is simply normal market activity.

Tournament‑Specific Dynamics
March Madness creates conditions that rarely exist in other sports: short turnaround times, neutral courts, unfamiliar matchups, and intense public interest. These factors increase volatility, which is why the tournament appears unpredictable despite the underlying markets being structured and deliberate. Volatility is inherent to the design, not a flaw in pricing.

For a verified breakdown of how March Madness betting really works, including odds, markets, and timing, see our complete March Madness betting guide.