Published Nov 13, 7:36pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Nov 13, 7:36pm ET
Grok AI
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|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | +4 (-115) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -4 (-105) |
This season has been a struggle for the Chiefs. They lost their first two games to the Chargers and Eagles, righted the ship with wins over the Giants and Ravens, were upset by the Jaguars, beat the Lions, Raiders, and Commanders, then lost relatively convincingly to the Bills.
Josh Allen singing some “Mr. Brightside” and embracing Max Hairston after #Bills beat the Chiefs. pic.twitter.com/h3F5WBr2Ah
— Jon Scott (@JonScottTV) November 3, 2025
To be fair, they were without star wideout Rashee Rice for the first six games. Isiah Pacheco does not look like he's back in form after his fractured fibula. Travis Kelce is looking every bit his 36 years, but for a few spurts of past excellence. Chris Jones has appeared indifferent.
Andy Reid has held it together reasonably well, and a veteran team with Patrick Mahomes and three Super Bowl wins and two more Super Bowl appearances in the past six years will always be dangerous. But they are vulnerable.
It's easily forgotten that in 2024, despite their 15-2 record, they did not hit their stride until late in the season. They were winning, but they were doing so unimpressively. Once the playoffs were in sight, they took off and made another Super Bowl when they had been counted out earlier in the season.
They can still put the points on the board, ranked 4th in the league in points per game. In addition, they are opportunistic with a +4 takeaway differential. The defense has been solid, ranked 7th in defensive passing yards per game and 12th in defensive rushing yards per game.
This game will be a test case as to whether the Kansas City can turn it on when necessary. They need this game much more than Denver does.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy, WR | INJURED |
| Isiah Pacheco, RB | INJURED |
| George Karlaftis, DE | INJURED |
During their seven-game winning streak, the Broncos' only "easy" wins were against the Cowboys and Bengals. They won tight games. Their 33-32 win over the Giants was a borderline miraculous comeback. They beat the Eagles by 4, the Jets by 2, the Giants by 1, the Texans by 3, and the Raiders by 3.
If they play the same way against the Chiefs as they did in those "could go either way" games, they're going to lose.
QB Bo Nix struggled against the Raiders and Pete Carroll's defense. He completed 16 of 28 passes for 150 yards, 1 TD, and 2 picks. The second-year QB is doing what he has to do to win and making clutch throws. The defense came through when it needed to.
Broncos-Raiders was perhaps the most Thursday Night Footballest Thursday Night Football game of all-time pic.twitter.com/VgyH801amP
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) November 7, 2025
Still, Denver is -4 in takeaway differential and 18th in passing yards per game. Their defense has been excellent, ranked 6th in defensive passing yards per game and 12th in defensive rushing yards per game. They can run the ball with J.K. Dobbins.
The problem as they take the field with the Chiefs is injuries. The star linebacker, Alex Singleton, was diagnosed with testicular cancer and is out. Dobbins has a foot injury. Superstar cornerback Patrick Surtain II has a pectoral injury.
Mahomes and the Chiefs are the test to determine whether the Broncos should be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Marvin Mims, WR | INJURED |
| John Franklin-Myers, DE | INJURED |
| J.K. Dobbins, RB | INJURED |
| Alex Singleton, LB | INJURED |
| Patrick Surtain, CB | INJURED |
In the Week 11 Chiefs-Broncos AFC West showdown, the game comes down to which team needs this game more and which team is healthier. On both counts, it's the Chiefs.
Denver's top-level defense is severely compromised. Nix is a good QB and can make the clutch throws, but he's not winning a shootout with Mahomes.
Kansas City can still win the AFC West. First, they need to beat the Broncos in Denver. And they will, covering the spread.
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Pick
Kansas City Chiefs -4
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