Published Nov 28, 7:31pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Nov 28, 7:31pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Nov 28, 7:31pm ET
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| Pittsburgh Steelers | +3 (-105) |
| Buffalo Bills | -3 (-115) |
The Bills lost a tough battle in Week 12 with the Texans, 23-19. They now sit 2.5 games behind the surprising Patriots. They have already lost to New England this season. The Bills' remaining schedule is mediocre, but after suffering upset losses to the Falcons and Dolphins, nothing is guaranteed.
Josh Allen struggled against Houston, getting picked off twice. The Bills' two TDs scored in the game were on a James Cook 45-yard run and a Ray Davis 97-yard kickoff return.
In the last 2 weeks Ray Davis has taken the kick off return duties and hasn’t looked back#BillsMafia | #GoBills
— Peter DiBiasi (@DibiasiPeter) November 24, 2025
pic.twitter.com/6CZUAChbLr
Their defense held Houston QB Davis Mills to 153 yards, but he threw 2 TD passes.
The Bills are 30th in the NFL in defensive rushing yards per game. They are -2 in takeaway differential. With Rodgers likely compromised with his wrist fracture, expect the Steelers to try and take advantage of the Bills' struggles against the run.
The Bills' remaining schedule includes the Bengals, Patriots, Browns, Eagles, and Jets, but after some of the losses they have suffered, who knows what to expect?
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| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel, WR | INJURED |
| Spencer Brown, OT | INJURED |
| Dion Dawkins, OT | INJURED |
| Terrel Bernard, LB | INJURED |
| Dalton Kincaid, TE | INJURED |
| Joshua Palmer, WR | INJURED |
At 6-5, the Steelers are teetering on the verge of the same level of mediocrity they have shown since Ben Roethlisberger retired. In that time, they have tried one quarterback after another. Now they have future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers.
Aaron Rodgers to start vs. Bills on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/wFulxvS0ys
— NFL (@NFL) November 28, 2025
Rodgers has been good with a 97.7 passer rating. He's thrown 19 TD passes against 7 picks. He missed the Bears game with that fractured left wrist.
With the Ravens having lost to the Bengals on Thanksgiving, the division is increasingly looking like it will be decided by which team is playing least worst at season's end. Pittsburgh still has two games against the Ravens.
Even if they lose to Buffalo, it doesn't dim their playoff hopes that much.
The Steelers are next-to-last in the league in defensive passing yards per game. They are middle of the pack against the rush. They're +8 in takeaway differential. T.J. Watt is having a bad year (for him) with only 7 sacks. The secondary has been woeful.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers, QB | INJURED |
| Daniel Ekuale, DT | INJURED |
| Broderick Jones, OT | INJURED |
| Derrick Harmon, DT | INJURED |
In Week 13 Bills-Steelers, both teams are seeing their preseason expectations coming undone. Buffalo was a Super Bowl pick, but has played inconsistently with a shaky defense. Pittsburgh is old and has multiple players who look like they're near the end. Changes are coming in Pittsburgh, no matter what.
The Bills need this game desperately as a road favorite and will cover the 3-point spread.
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Pick
Buffalo Bills -3
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