Published Jul 5, 7:30pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 5, 7:30pm ET
Shutterstock
Updated Jul 5, 7:30pm ET
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| Tampa Bay Rays | +102 |
| New York Yankees | -112 |
The Yankees are spiraling, having lost 9 of 10 and falling 4.5 games behind the Rays in the AL East. Before losing 4 straight against the archrival Red Sox in Boston, they were one of the best teams in MLB, even without Aaron Judge, and were seen as a World Series favorite.
Judge's absence is clearly affecting them.
Still, the American League is so mediocre that the Yankees are basically assured of making the playoffs. And they will be buyers at the trade deadline.
They do not want to fall too far behind the Rays in this 4-game set.
For the opener, they send Cam Schlittler to the hill.
The righty is coming off his worst start of the season. The Tigers beat him up for 6 earned runs and 4 homers in 4 innings. Before that, he was arguably been the best pitcher in baseball this year.
For the season, he leads the AL in bWAR at 3.8 and ERA at 2.08. He's tossed 104 innings, allowed 79 hits, 24 earned runs, and 10 homers, walking 21 and striking out 123.
He faced the Rays on April 12, allowed 3 earned runs and 7 hits over 5 innings, taking the loss.
Against Griffin Jax, Trent Grisham is 1 for 1 with a home run. Amed Rosario is 4 for 11 with a double and a triple. Cody Bellinger is 1 for 4 with a single. Paul Goldschmidt is 1 for 3 with a single, a walk, and a strikeout. Ben Rice is 1 for 1 with a single. Anthony Volpe is 1 for 2 with a single.
Bellinger's OPS is down to .774. Jasson Dominguez has not hit in Judge's absence. He's batting .215 with a .652 OPS. Anthony Volpe is hitting .242 with a .668 OPS.
The Rays have won 9 of 11 to open up that 4.5 game lead over the Yankees.
In the opener hosting the Yankees, Griffin Jax takes the mound. The righty, over his past five starts, he's thrown 26 innings, allowed 5 runs, and 8 hits. For the season, he's got a 0.2 bWAR and a 3.45 ERA. His ERA is misleading because he got knocked around by the Tigers on June 1, allowing 6 earned runs in 4 innings.
Over 60 innings, he's allowed 56 hits, 23 earned runs, 11 homers, walked 20 and struck out 58.
Junier Caminero is an MVP candidate with a .939 OPS and 26 homers. Jonathan Aranda has an .840 OPS and 13 homers. Yandy Diaz is batting .321 with an .893 OPS and 12 homers. Cedric Mullins has been hitting better lately. His average is up to .213 and he has 10 homers.
For the Rays against Schlittler, Caminero is 3 for 9 with a home run. Taylor Walls is 3 for 4 with 3 singles. Chandler Simpson is 3 for 9 with 3 singles. Diaz is 1 for 7 with a single.
This is a very important July game for the Yankees. They desperately need to change the current storyline and get a win, particularly against the team they're chasing in the AL East.
The Rays, however, are no easy mark. They do all the things the Yankees don't do, including play solid defense and run the bases well.
It helps that New York has Schlittler going, but Jax has been excellent lately and the Rays will come out on top in this one to keep the Bombers reeling.
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Tampa Bay Rays +102
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