Published Aug 5, 7:33pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Aug 5, 7:33pm ET
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Updated Aug 5, 7:33pm ET
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| Boston Red Sox | -180 |
| Chicago White Sox | +162 |
The White Sox were buyers at the MLB trade deadline. One surprising acquisition was former Mariners ace Luis Castillo.
Castillo's last start as a Mariner was emblematic of his 2026 season. Against the Dodgers, he tossed 5 innings, allowed 11 hits, and 5 earned runs.
For the season, he has a -0.7 bWAR and a 5.06 ERA. In 20 appearances (17 starts), he's thrown 99.2 innings, allowed 107 hits, 56 earned runs, and 16 homers, walking 32 and striking out 86.
Chicago relies heavily on the home run and has Colson Montgomery (25 homers), Munetaka Murakami (24 homers), and Miguel Vargas (24 homers) leading the way. They did not buy heavily on offense at the deadline. Andrew Benintendi is the next most productive power bat with 12 homers. Randal Grichuk has 9.
Against Ranger Suarez, Luisangel Acuña is 1 for 2 with a home run. Grichuk is 3 for 9 with a double. Brenton Doyle is 2 for 9 with a triple. Joey Bart is 1 for 4 with a single. Vargas is 0 for 2.
When the Red Sox were spiraling, fired their manager Alex Cora, and Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow was said to be on thin ice, who could have imagined that they would get scorching hot in July and, within a month, be right on the heels of the Yankees in the AL East and within striking distance of the 1st place Rays.
For this matchup, they send lefty Ranger Suarez to the hill.
Suarez only went 4.2 innings in his last start against the Dodgers, but the team won and he was removed after 4.2 innings, allowing 3 earned runs. In 2026, he has a 1.8 bWAR and a 3.15 ERA. In 100 innings, he's allowed 88 hits, 35 earned runs, and 5 home runs, walking 28 and striking out 105.
Boston had some bad luck when newly acquired 3rd baseman Curtis Mead broke his wrist. However, Boston made perhaps the biggest move at the deadline this side of the Dodgers and Tarik Skubal by acquiring Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman. It partially solved their offensive woes and their defense behind the plate.
Jarren Duran has been hitting well lately, finally getting his average over .200. Willson Contreras leads the team with 23 homers. After a horrible start, Caleb Durbin's batting average is approaching .250.
For the BoSox against Castillo, Contreras is 10 for 22 with 4 doubles and a home run. Duran is 3 for 14 with a home run. Durbin is 2 for 2 with a double. Rutschman is 0 for 6 with 2 K's.
Both teams have their eyes on a playoff spot. This is a key start for Castillo to show that he will not cart the same problems he had in Seattle to his new team in Chicago. He has not been good in general this season, but it's safe to assume he'll be motivated with a chance to get the ChiSox to the postseason.
Suarez has generally been good, but only gives his team 5 innings or so. If Castillo holds the BoSox offense down, then the ChiSox will win the game.
That's what will happen as Castillo will have a solid performance and get his new team out of Boston with a win.
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Chicago White Sox +162
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