Published Aug 5, 5:25pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Aug 5, 5:25pm ET
Updated Aug 5, 5:31pm ET
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| Seattle Mariners | -130 |
| Detroit Tigers | +108 |
Framber Valdez takes a 4.41 ERA and 4.19 FIP into Thursday's start for the Detroit Tigers, middling numbers that have barely moved all year. His last three outings have settled at a 4.57 FIP, close enough to his season mark that there's no real trend to point to either way. He is exactly the pitcher his numbers say he is.
Detroit's .731 team OPS is 45 points better than Seattle's, the largest edge in this matchup, and the Tigers have won six of their last ten games to Seattle's four. Their bullpen sits at a 4.41 FIP with a 21.8% strikeout rate, both a step behind Seattle's relief group. The lineup and the recent form both point toward Detroit.
Bryce Miller has a tidy 2.80 ERA this season, but the 3.83 FIP tells a truer story, 1.03 runs worse than the ERA suggests. His last three starts have been a genuine cold stretch, a 6.15 FIP well off both numbers. His edge over Valdez on the season is a modest 0.36 of FIP, and his current form is doing nothing to widen it.
Seattle's .686 team OPS trails Detroit's by that same 45 points, the clear weakness on this roster, and the Mariners have lost six of their last ten games. What Seattle has is the ballpark and the bullpen, a 3.94 FIP and a 23.8% strikeout rate that both edge out Detroit's relief group by roughly half a run. That, plus home field, is a real but narrow structural edge, not a comfortable one.
Detroit's case is straightforward: the better lineup by 45 points of OPS and the better recent form at six wins in ten. That's not nothing, and Miller's last three starts have been genuinely bad. But Seattle still holds a bullpen sharper by roughly half a run and the extra edge of home field, and Miller's season-long advantage over Valdez, thin as it is, hasn't disappeared just because of one rough stretch. Take Seattle.
Mariners.
Pick: Seattle Mariners -130
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Pick
Seattle Mariners -130
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