Published Jul 9, 9:50pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 9, 9:50pm ET
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Updated Jul 9, 9:50pm ET
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| Baltimore Orioles | -145 |
| Kansas City Royals | +131 |
Royals' second-year righty Luinder Avila moved into the starting rotation for good at the start of June and has been reasonably good in the role. Apart from a terrible outing against the Astros in which he allowed 8 runs and 5 hits in 2/3 of an inning, he's provided the Royals with around 5 innings a start and kept the opponents' offense under control.
For the season, he has a 0.2 bWAR and a 5.05 ERA, but that's misleading. Over 51.2 innings, he's allowed 51 hits, 29 earned runs, and 5 homers, walking 31 and striking out 47. The walks are worrisome, but he keeps the ball in the park.
The Royals are 38-56 and will almost assuredly be MLB trade deadline sellers.
They have been passable in the starting rotation, but poor offensively, and have a bad bullpen.
Jac Caglianone leads the team with 14 homers and has a .776 OPS. Carter Jensen has 13 homers and a .750 OPS. Bobby Witt Jr. is batting .288 with an .823 OPS, 13 homers, and 30 stolen bases in 35 attempts. Salvador Perez has 11 homers and an OPS below .600.
No Royals hitter has ever faced O's starter Brandon Young in the majors.
Brandon Young, in his second year in the majors, has a 1.1 bWAR and a 3.38 ERA in 14 starts. Over 77.1 innings, he's surrendered 75 hits, 29 earned runs, and 7 homers, walking 30 and striking out 62. He'll be 28 next month and as an undrafted free agent, this is a very solid sign for the 6'6", 230-pound righty.
The Orioles are 43-51 and remain on the outskirts of playoff contention. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games.
After a slow start in his new surroundings, Pete Alonson has 20 homers and an .812 OPS. Gunnar Henderson has 16 homers, but a .687 OPS. Coby Mayo is batting .191 with a .645 OPS and 11 homers. Tyler O'Neill is batting .196. Jackson Holliday is at .212. Adley Rutschman is batting .256 with 8 homers and a .774 OPS.
Baltimore has had the same foundation for several years and they're not taking a step forward. Maybe, short of firing GM Mike Elias, they should try something drastic at the trade deadline by trading one of their high draft picks, just to change the dynamic and see if it yields a positive result.
No Orioles hitter has ever faced Avila in the big leagues.
Both teams are major disappointments after positive preseason expectations. The Orioles are still hovering around playoff contention while the Royals have presumably accepted reality.
The pitching matchup looks like an advantage for Baltimore, but Avila has been very good for the most part since joining the rotation. Neither team hits particularly well, but the O's hit more home runs. The problem is that Avila does not give up a lot of home runs.
Kansas City will take this one behind their improving young starter, Avila.
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Pick
Kansas City Royals +131
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