Published Jul 8, 4:45pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 8, 4:45pm ET
Updated Jul 8, 4:45pm ET
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| New York Mets | -145 |
| Kansas City Royals | +123 |
Michael Wacha is 5-6 with a 3.45 ERA. His FIP of 3.95 says the results are running a little ahead of the underlying quality, but not dramatically so. His last-three FIP of 3.63 shows the form holding close to his season line — no significant cooling, no surge, just a veteran pitcher doing what he does. Wacha has kept Kansas City in games all season, which matters considerably more today given what is coming out of the other dugout.
The Royals lineup at .717 OPS wins the matchup against New York. Their bullpen FIP of 4.85 with a 19.2% strikeout rate is the shakier backend in this game, and Kansas City is 4-6 over their last ten. At +123, the market is pricing in Manaea as a significant advantage. The underlying data does not support that read.
Sean Manaea is 1-4 with a 5.16 ERA. His FIP of 4.05 says he has been pitching better than those results indicate, but his last-three FIP of 5.05 says the gap has closed in the wrong direction. He started the year in the Mets' bullpen and has been inconsistent since returning to the rotation. Kansas City beat the Mets yesterday. Manaea is going against a team that has his number right now, in a lineup that holds the OPS edge, in a game where he is the -145 justification for the market pricing.
New York at .683 OPS is the weaker offensive unit. Their bullpen FIP of 3.35 with a 26.9% strikeout rate is the best backend in this game by a significant margin and the strongest structural argument for the home side. It does not start the game.
The Mets' bullpen is genuinely elite and will be there if Manaea struggles early. But Wacha's stability against Manaea's 5.05 last-three FIP, with Kansas City holding the lineup edge, is a clean value case at +123. The market has built a price around the New York home advantage that the pitching data does not justify. Take the Royals.
Royals.
Pick: Kansas City Royals +123
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Pick
Kansas City Royals +123
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