Published Jul 11, 3:48pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 11, 3:48pm ET
Updated Jul 11, 3:48pm ET
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| San Francisco Giants | -152 |
| Colorado Rockies | +118 |
Michael Lorenzen is 3-9 with a 6.65 ERA. His FIP of 4.87 says he has been pitching better than that ugly ERA suggests, but a 4.87 FIP is still below average, and his last-three FIP of 4.96 shows no recent improvement. Lorenzen has been one of the weaker rotation arms in the league this season, and he is going into Oracle Park, a pitcher-friendly ballpark that does not favor a road starter allowing as much contact as he has.
One thing worth acknowledging: Colorado is actually the hotter team by record, sitting 6-4 over their last ten while San Francisco has gone 4-6. The Rockies at .750 OPS also hold a modest lineup edge. Their bullpen FIP of 4.80 with a 19.6% strikeout rate is the weaker backend, though, and their recent form has not been built on strong starting pitching.
Trevor McDonald is 3-7 with a 5.46 ERA. His FIP of 4.03 says he has been pitching considerably better than that ERA, the kind of gap that suggests bad luck rather than bad process. His last-three FIP of 3.37 shows the form genuinely improving in recent starts. McDonald at home at Oracle Park, where the dimensions favor a pitcher on an upswing, is a better spot than his surface numbers imply, and the FIP gap between him and Lorenzen is real.
San Francisco at .731 OPS loses a slight lineup edge to Colorado. The Giants are 4-6 over their last ten, the colder team by record. Their bullpen FIP of 4.32 with a 20.2% strikeout rate is the better backend, and home field at Oracle is a genuine advantage for a contact-managing staff.
Colorado is the hotter team by record and holds a slight lineup edge. But McDonald has been sharpening while Lorenzen has struggled all year, the FIP gap favors San Francisco, and Oracle Park rewards the pitcher trending in the right direction. The Giants at home are the play.
Giants.
Pick: San Francisco Giants -152
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Pick
San Francisco Giants -152
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