- The Colorado Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals meet Sunday at Busch Stadium.
- Michael Lorenzen takes the mound for Colorado.
- Michael McGreevy gets the start for St. Louis.
The Colorado Rockies visit Busch Stadium Sunday carrying the better lineup in this matchup, but St. Louis holds the edges nearly everywhere else.
Lorenzen’s ERA Overstates the Damage, but the Damage Is Still Real
Michael Lorenzen has struggled to a 6.94 ERA this season, and while his 5.05 FIP says that number overstates things by 1.89 runs, a 5.05 FIP is still a poor mark on its own. His last three starts haven’t offered relief, a 6.90 FIP that’s essentially in line with his ugly season number. There’s no hidden form here to lean on. Whatever cushion the FIP-versus-ERA gap provides, it doesn’t turn this into a favorable matchup.
Colorado’s .744 team OPS is the one clear advantage on their side, 51 points ahead of St. Louis and the largest lineup gap on this week’s board. It hasn’t translated to winning lately, though: the Rockies have lost seven of their last ten, and their bullpen’s 5.20 FIP is the weakest number in this game.
McGreevy Is the Better Arm, Even With His ERA Flattering Him
Michael McGreevy’s 3.59 ERA looks solid, but his 4.28 FIP says the ERA is flattering him by 0.69 runs. Even accounting for that gap, he’s still the better starter in this game by 0.77 of FIP over Lorenzen’s season mark. The trend isn’t encouraging, though: his last three starts have slipped further to a 5.10 FIP, worse than either his ERA or his season FIP. This isn’t shaping up as a pitchers’ duel from either side of the mound.
St. Louis backs its starter with a bullpen at a 4.32 FIP, 0.88 better than Colorado’s, home field, and better recent form at 5-5 over its last ten against the Rockies’ 3-7. Those advantages, not a dominant starter, are the real foundation of the Cardinals’ case.
Rockies vs Cardinals Pick
Colorado brings the best lineup edge on this week’s board, 51 points of OPS, and that shouldn’t get buried. But almost everything else favors St. Louis: McGreevy holds a 0.77 FIP edge over Lorenzen even with his ERA flattering him, the Cardinals’ bullpen is nearly a run sharper, and Colorado has lost seven of its last ten. Neither starter is sharp right now, McGreevy has drifted to a 5.10 FIP over his last three and Lorenzen sits at 6.90, so this isn’t likely to be a low-scoring pitchers’ game. At -168, St. Louis is a reasonable side at a fair number. Take St. Louis.
Cardinals.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -168
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Pick
St. Louis Cardinals -168
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