Published Jul 7, 11:20am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 7, 11:20am ET
Updated Jul 7, 11:20am ET
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| Chicago White Sox | -121 |
| Boston Red Sox | +105 |
Jake Bennett is 3-3 with a 3.10 ERA. His FIP of 3.17 sits almost on top of the ERA results and process match, no meaningful gap in either direction. His last-three FIP of 2.95 shows the form holding. Bennett has been one of the more quietly reliable starters in the AL this season. The problem tonight is not Bennett's quality. It is the matchup.
Boston at .698 OPS is below average on offense, and the Red Sox are 8-2 over their last ten, which is the strongest recent form argument on the road side. Their bullpen FIP of 4.08 with a 22.7% strikeout rate is adequate but not a shutdown unit.
Davis Martin is 9-3 with a 3.08 ERA. His FIP tracks close to that number, and his last-three FIP of 1.15 makes him the sharpest active starter on tonight's slate. He has been dominant in recent outings and Rate Field at home against a below-average Boston offense is the exact spot where that kind of form plays out. Chicago is 6-4 over its last ten.
The White Sox lineup at .738 OPS holds a .040 OPS advantage over Boston. Their bullpen FIP of 4.71 with a 21.6% strikeout rate is the weaker backend. If Martin goes deep, that bullpen stays in reserve. His recent form says he will.
Boston's 8-2 form is real and Bennett is a legitimate starter. But Martin's 1.15 last-three FIP is the single sharpest pitching number on tonight's board, Chicago has the lineup edge, and the White Sox are at home. The risk here is Boston's form continuing, but the mismatch on the mound and in the lineup is too clear to ignore.
White Sox.
Pick: Chicago White Sox -121
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Pick
Chicago White Sox -121
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