Published Jul 9, 8:36pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 9, 8:36pm ET
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Updated Jul 9, 8:36pm ET
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| New York Mets | -128 |
| Boston Red Sox | +116 |
The Red Sox have won 6 straight and are coming off a sweep of the contending White Sox. They are slowly crawling back into playoff contention and, if they maintain their solid play, will not be sellers at the MLB trade deadline.
As they travel to New York, not to face their bitterest rivals in the Bronx, but the other team (the one that beat them in the 1986 World Series), the Mets, they try to keep their hot streak going.
Sonny Gray takes the hill. The veteran righty has a 2.2 bWAR and leads the AL with 10 wins. He has a 2.61 ERA. Over 89.1 frames, he's allowed 76 hits, 26 earned runs, and 10 homers, walking 23 and striking out 82.
The BoSox will need an offensive upgrade at the deadline if they want to be taken seriously. Only Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela have been consistently productive this season. Jarren Duran is still batting below .200. They are still without Trevor Story and Roman Anthony.
No Red Sox hitter has ever faced Nolan McLean in the majors.
Against the Cubs on June 24, Nolan McLean had one of his worst starts in the majors, allowing 6 earned runs on 7 hits in 6 innings. In the subsequent two starts, he tossed 12 innings, allowed 10 hits, and 3 earned runs.
The young righty has dealt with some adversity this season, but is showing resilience. Overall, he has a 1.2 bWAR and a 3.73 ERA in 18 starts. Over 101.1 frames, he's allowed 76 hits, 42 earned runs, and surrendered 10 homers, walking 37 and striking out 118. He leads the NL in hit batsmen with 12.
New York has won 4 of its last 5 games, salvaging a split in their house of horrors in Atlanta and taking 2 of 3 from the Royals at home, overcoming a disastrous first game of the series when they scored 12 runs and managed to lose.
Rookie AJ Ewing has been scorching, going 7 for 13 with 2 homers in his last 3 games. Overall, he's batting .277 with an .802 OPS. Juan Soto is superlative as usual with a .993 OPS and 21 homers. Ewing's fellow rookie Carson Benge is batting .269 with a .744 OPS and 11 homers. Jorge Polanco is back after being out since April. Francisco Lindor continues to struggle with a .211 average.
Against Gray, Lindor is 8 for 29 with 3 home runs. Soto is 6 for 13 with a double and a home run. Tyrone Taylor is 3 for 11 with a home run. Bo Bichette is 3 for 7 with 3 singles. Polanco is 1 for 7 with a single.
Boston has been playing very well and New York has been playing okay, at least over the last few games. The question with both teams is whether they can maintain it or they will revert to the same inconsistent or outright bad teams they've been for much of the 2026 season.
McLean is the Mets' best starter. Gray has been Boston's best starter. Several hitters in the Mets' lineup have handled Gray well in the past and New York has been hot at the plate. For this matchup, McLean will hold the Red Sox down and the Mets will take the win.
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Pick
New York Mets -128
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