Published Aug 4, 6:34pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Aug 4, 6:34pm ET
Updated Aug 4, 6:34pm ET
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| Colorado Rockies | +130 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | -156 |
Nick Martinez carries a tidy 2.77 ERA into Wednesday's start for the Tampa Bay Rays, but the number flatters him. His FIP sits at 4.17, a full 1.40 runs worse than the ERA suggests, and his last three outings have been rougher still at a 5.43 FIP. The results have held up. The process behind them has not.
Tampa Bay's .732 team OPS trails Colorado's .746 by 14 points, the one number working against the Rays, but the supporting cast elsewhere is strong. The Rays have won seven of their last ten games, and their bullpen backs that form with a 4.14 FIP and a 23.7% strikeout rate, both better than Colorado's relief unit. Martinez's own recent dip is the one real crack in the case.
Tomoyuki Sugano has a 4.47 ERA and 5.44 FIP this season, the weaker line of the two starters by 1.27 runs of FIP, and his last three starts have drifted a bit further to a 5.77 FIP. Coors Field is part of that story. The thin air at altitude inflates stat lines and compresses pitching gaps across the board, and Sugano's numbers shouldn't be read in isolation from the ballpark he throws half his games in.
Colorado's .746 team OPS is the best individual number on the field, 14 points clear of Tampa Bay's, and it's the whole case for the Rockies. Everything else runs the other way: Colorado has won just four of its last ten games, and the bullpen's 4.62 FIP is roughly half a run worse than Tampa Bay's with a strikeout rate nearly four points lower. The lineup is real. It's also playing behind a shorthanded pitching staff.
Colorado's 14-point OPS edge is real, and at altitude that gap can widen fast if the pitching gets shaky, a fair worry given Martinez's last three starts. But Tampa Bay still holds the better arm by 1.27 runs of FIP even in a down stretch, the sharper bullpen by roughly half a run, and the far better recent form at seven wins in ten. Take the Rays.
Rays.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -156
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Pick
Tampa Bay Rays -156
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