Published Aug 4, 8:21pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Aug 4, 8:21pm ET
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Updated Aug 4, 8:21pm ET
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| Milwaukee Brewers | -128 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | +116 |
Kyle Harrison was the Brewers' second-best starter this season before going on the injured list with a forearm issue. For the season, he has a 2.5 bWAR and a 3.01 ERA. In 83.2 innings, he's allowed 70 hits, 28 earned runs, and 10 homers, walking 20 and striking out 101. The lefty had a case to make the All-Star team.
Milwaukee made some small moves at the MLB trade deadline. They boosted their pitching with Dustin May, JoJo Romero, and Antonio Senzatela. And they acquired catcher Bo Naylor from the Guardians.
The Brewers' offense is greater than the sum of its parts. Jake Bauers has a near .880 OPS and 20 homers. Brice Turang has 16 homers and an OPS above .820. Jackson Chourio has an OPS creeping toward .800 with 13 homers. They chose not to upgrade offensively from shortstop Joey Ortiz because he's so good defensively and he's having a decent season at the plate.
Against Paul Skenes, Turang is 2 for 15 with a home run. William Contreras is 1 for 11 with a double. Chourio is 2 for 7 with a double. Bauers is 1 for 7 with a single. Ortiz is 2 for 6 with a double. Christian Yelich is 5 for 12 with a double.
Paul Skenes's numbers in 2026 are good. But they're not in the context of the standard he set in the first two years of his career. The Pirates' righty has gotten knocked around in his last two starts against the Cubs and Reds, tossing 9.1 innings, allowing 13 hits, and 10 earned runs.
Overall, he has a 1.8 bWAR and a 3.90 ERA. In 124.2 innings, he's allowed 107 hits, 54 earned runs, and 13 homers, walking 32 and striking out 156.
In 2025, he posted an ERA of 1.97 and won the NL Cy Young Award. The prior year, his rookie year, he had a 1.96 ERA, was 3rd for the CYA, and won Rookie of the Year.
Pirates GM Ben Cherington went all in on the bullpen at the trade deadline, getting Luke Weaver, Kirby Yates, Camilo Doval, and Luke Bachar.
Slugger Ryan O'Hearn will be out for 6-8 weeks with a quad strain.
Brandon Lowe has 23 homers and an OPS just over .800. They will miss O'Hearn and his .788 OPS and 17 homers. Bryan Reynolds has an OPS over .830. Oneil Cruz has 21 stolen bases in 25 attempts, 14 homers, and an OPS over .820. Esmerlyn Valdez has an OPS approaching 1.000 and 14 homers in 46 games.
For the Pirates against Harrison, Jake Mangum is 2 for 7 with a double. Jared Triolo is 1 for 2 with a double. Marcell Ozuna is 1 for 5 with a single. Reynolds is 0 for 4 with a walk and 2 K's. Lowe is 1 for 3 with a single.
On an even playing field, if Skenes was pitching as he did in the first two years of his career and the first couple of months in 2026, then this would be advantage Pirates, especially with Harrison returning from injury.
However, Skenes has not been good of late and the Brewers take advantage of every opportunity is presented to them. For this matchup, though, the Pirates will take this win behind Skenes as, at least for this game, he regains his form on the road.
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Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates +116
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