Published Aug 3, 8:53pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Aug 3, 8:53pm ET
Updated Aug 4, 5:17pm ET
|
|
|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | -167 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | +139 |
Jared Jones carries a 3.81 ERA and 3.53 FIP this season, a solid mid-rotation line, and his last three starts have trended even better with a 3.15 FIP. He is not the problem for Pittsburgh tonight. Jones is a talented arm doing his job on a team that has not given him much to work with lately.
Pittsburgh carries a .751 team OPS, 16 points better than Milwaukee's. Everything else points the other way. Pittsburgh has gone 3-7 over its last ten games, and its bullpen strikes out batters at a 22.1% clip while getting hit hard enough to carry a 4.70 FIP, a full run higher than Milwaukee's. The lineup is real. The supporting cast around it is the problem.
Logan Henderson owns the best individual number on the mound tonight, a 2.66 ERA and 2.85 FIP that lead this matchup outright. His last three starts have drifted a touch to a 3.47 FIP. Henderson's FIP sits 0.68 better than Jones', and Milwaukee is not winning this game on the strength of the bullpen alone.
Milwaukee's .735 team OPS trails Pittsburgh. Milwaukee has won six of its last ten games while Pittsburgh has lost seven of ten, and the Brewers' bullpen backs that form up with a 3.81 FIP and a 21.9% strikeout rate, 0.89 better than Pittsburgh's in FIP and the widest structural gap in this matchup.
Pittsburgh's case starts and ends with the lineup, a real 16-point OPS edge that should not be dismissed. However, Milwaukee counters with the better starter, a bullpen sharper by nearly a full run, and the far better recent form, six wins in ten against Pittsburgh's three. This is not a squeaker priced as one. The gap between these teams is real, and it runs through Milwaukee. Take the Brewers.
|
Pick
Milwaukee Brewers -167
|
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000
|
