Published Jul 10, 8:47pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 10, 8:47pm ET
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Updated Jul 10, 8:47pm ET
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| Detroit Tigers | +122 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -135 |
It's been a rough go for Cristopher Sanchez since the end of his run of 50.2 consecutive scoreless innings. The worst start came in his last outing when the Royals pounded him for 9 earned runs in 3.1 innings, including 3 homers.
That came two starts after he got knocked around by the Nationals to the tune of 5 earned runs in 5 innings. Two starts before that, he gave up 8 hits and 4 earned runs in 5.2 innings against the Brewers.
Even with the slump, he's still leading MLB with a 5.1 bWAR. In 120.1 innings, he's allowed 116 hits, 35 earned runs, and 11 homers, walking 24 and striking out 137.
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have combined for 52 homers. Brandon Marsh will start his first All-Star game with a career year, batting over .300 with 15 homers. Philly's lineup is top-heavy, particularly with the struggles of Trea Turner, JT Realmuto, Alec Bohm, and Bryson Stott. They will need to find some offense at the trade deadline, which President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski will surely do.
Against Tigers starter Casey Mize, Bohm is 2 for 3 with a home run. Harper is 2 for 3 with 2 doubles. Marsh is 1 for 4 with a single. Schwarber is 0 for 5 with 2 K's. Turner is 1 for 3 with a single.
For the Tigers, any discussion on pending free agents starts with ace Tarik Skubal. This is, of course, justified since Skubal is the 2X reigning AL Cy Young Award. However, Casey Mize was the 1st overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft and has never really lived up to that lofty draft status. And he too is a free agent at the end of the 2026 season.
The righty is having a quietly good season with a 2.7 bWAR and a 2.64 ERA. In 71.2 innings, he's allowed 54 hits, 21 earned runs, and 5 homers, walking 16 and striking out 72. Two starts ago, he dominated the Yankees, allowing 1 hit and no runs in 7 innings, walking none and striking out 10.
The Tigers, despite their poor record, are not out of playoff contention, especially in the weak AL Central. All-Star catcher Dillon Dingler is having his career year with an OPS over .840 and 19 homers. Spencer Torkelson has an OPS of around .720 with 15 homers. Kerry Carpenter is batting in the .220s. Riley Greene is having an excellent season with an .850 OPS. Kevin McGonigle has an on-base percentage approaching .400.
For the Tigers against Sanchez, Torkelson is 2 for 3 with 2 singles. No other Tigers batter has a hit against him. Dingler is 0 for 2 with a walk. Greene is 0 for 3 with a strikeout. Matt Vierling is 0 for 4 with 2 K's.
Sanchez was borderline unhittable earlier this season. If he were still pitching that well, then this might be more of a mismatch. But he's not. Mize has been very good in his own right.
While this looks like an advantage for the Phillies, the Tigers are can hit and are still looking to get back into the AL Central race. Detroit will get to Sanchez and Mize will pitch well enough to get the Tigers the win.
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Detroit Tigers +122
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