Published Jul 5, 4:15pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 5, 4:15pm ET
Updated Jul 5, 4:15pm ET
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| Kansas City Royals | +145 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -175 |
Cristopher Sánchez is 10-3 with a 2.00 ERA. Five days ago, he struck out nine batters over seven scoreless innings against Pittsburgh for his tenth win of the season. His FIP of 2.36 confirms the underlying quality matches the results: no gap, no regression risk, no noise. His last-three FIP of 3.21 shows a slight cooling from his historic May run, but that peak included a complete game shutout with 13 strikeouts and a franchise record for consecutive scoreless innings. A slight cooling still leaves him well ahead of virtually every starter he will face.
Philadelphia is 7-3 over its last ten. Their bullpen FIP of 3.48 with a 28.7% strikeout rate is one of the best backends in the National League. The Phillies beat Kansas City on both Saturday and Sunday to take the first two games of this series.
Noah Cameron is 4-6 with a 4.95 ERA. His FIP of 3.88 says he has been pitching better than those results indicate, there is a real ERA-FIP gap on the season. His last-three FIP of 5.64 say that the gap has closed in the wrong direction lately. Cameron's recent starts have been his worst of the year, and he is being handed a series finale against Sánchez while Kansas City has gone 2-8 over their last ten.
The Royals' lineup at .700 OPS is close to Philadelphia's. Their bullpen FIP of 4.96 with a 19.3% strikeout rate is one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league, a 1.49-run gap behind Philadelphia's backend. Kansas City needs Cameron to go deep to keep their relief corps out of tight spots. His last three starts suggest that is not happening.
Philadelphia has won two straight against this Royals team, Sánchez is pitching the best baseball of his career, and Kansas City's starter is in the worst stretch of his season. The Phillies are the play.
Phillies.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -175
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Pick
Philadelphia Phillies -175
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