Published Jul 8, 8:36pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 8, 8:36pm ET
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Updated Jul 8, 8:36pm ET
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| Cincinnati Reds | +147 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -163 |
Lefty Jesus Luzardo had a 7.94 ERA after three starts. Since then, he's returned to his form from 2025 when he was 7th in the NL Cy Young Award voting. In his last two starts, he's tossed 11 innings, allowed 8 hits and 2 earned runs.
For the season, he has a 2.4 bWAR and a 3.75 ERA. Over 103.1 innings, he's allowed 98 hits, 43 earned runs, and 9 home runs with 33 walks and 125 K's. He has always been good at keeping the ball in the park.
Kyle Schwarber continues to lead MLB in home runs. His batting average has crept over .250, so he'll be in contention for the MVP at season's end. Bryce Harper's OPS is approaching .900. Brandon Marsh continues with his career season with a batting average over .300 and 15 homers. Trea Turner's average is on the rise, above .240. J.T. Realmuto is still hovering around .200.
For the Phillies against Brady Singer, Realmuto is 2 for 3 with a home run. Schwarber is 2 for 8 with 2 doubles. Bryson Stott is 3 for 5 with 3 singles. Turner is 3 for 9 with a double. Harper is 1 for 5 with a double. Marsh is 0 for 4 with 2 K's.
Brady Singer has been mediocre all season, but for the most part, he's been passable as a starter. Generally, he gives the Reds around 5 or so innings. In his last start, he tossed 5 innings and allowed 3 hits and 3 earned runs. In his previous start, he gave up 5 earned runs in 4.1 innings. And in the start before that, he was excellent, holding the Brewers to 2 hits and no runs over 7 innings.
This sums up Singer's season.
Over the course of the season, he's posted a 0.4 bWAR and a 5.03 ERA. In 82.1 innings, he's allowed 97 hits, 46 earned runs, and 20 homers, walking 30 and striking out 71.
Singer's season is comparable to the Reds' season in general. After a hot start, they've fallen to nearly 10 games below .500 and are one of baseball's biggest disappointments.
At the plate, Sal Stewart has an OPS above .810 and is among the league leaders in RBI. JJ Bleday's batting average has plummeted after his apparent breakout season, but his OPS is still over .800. Eugenio Suarez is barely above .200 and is not hitting for power.
Cincinnati has not had much success against Luzardo. No Reds batters have homered against him. Tyler Stephenson is 3 for 5 with 3 singles. Elly De La Cruz is 2 for 5 with a triple. Spencer Steer is 2 for 4 with a double. Suarez is 1 for 10 with a single, a walk, and 5 K's. Nathaniel Lowe is 0 for 5 with 4 K's.
Just about every facet here is an advantage for the Phillies. Luzardo has been very good for the most part since his awful start. They hit a lot of home runs and Great American Ball Park is hitter-friendly. The Reds are struggling and Singer is up and down.
While advantages in baseball only go as far as which team gets the better pitching performance, hits more home runs, and executes, Philly should take this one behind Luzardo.
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Pick
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-110)
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