Published Aug 4, 6:30pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Aug 4, 6:30pm ET
Updated Aug 4, 6:30pm ET
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| Philadelphia Phillies | -163 |
| Washington Nationals | +135 |
Jake Irvin takes a 5.56 ERA and 4.72 FIP into Wednesday's start for the Washington Nationals, a below-average line but not the disaster the ERA alone suggests. His last three outings have held right around that mark, a 4.79 FIP that points to a pitcher who is consistently mediocre rather than trending toward a collapse. That stability matters against the arm on the other side tonight.
Washington's .768 team OPS is 63 points better than Philadelphia's .705, the largest edge anywhere in this matchup and the real foundation of the pick. Both clubs arrive on the same rough patch at 3-7 over their last ten games, so recent form is a wash. The bullpen split works against Washington: a 5.84 FIP that trails Philadelphia's 3.70 by 2.14 runs, with a strikeout rate nearly eight points lower. The lineup has to carry this one.
Andrew Painter carries a 6.72 ERA and 5.50 FIP this season, both worse than Irvin's, and the direction is the bigger concern than the level. His last three starts have cratered to an 8.12 FIP, a jump of 2.62 runs from his season number and about as clear a sign of a pitcher who can't find the strike zone as this slate will show. Whatever case exists for Philadelphia tonight, it isn't the man on the mound.
Philadelphia's .705 team OPS trails Washington by that same 63-point gap, the one number working against the Phillies. The bullpen is the counterweight, a 3.70 FIP and a 27.9% strikeout rate that both lead this matchup and would normally cover for a shaky rotation. But Painter's recent stretch is bad enough that even a strong relief group has less margin to work with, on a night Philadelphia is also sitting at 3-7 over its last ten.
Philadelphia's bullpen is the single best asset on the field tonight, 2.14 runs better than Washington's in FIP, and that unit has bailed out worse rotations before. But Painter's last three starts amount to a genuine collapse, an 8.12 FIP that erases much of what the bullpen might save, and Washington's 63-point OPS edge is the largest structural advantage anywhere on this slate. Take Washington.
Nationals.
Pick: Washington Nationals +135
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Pick
Washington Nationals +135
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