Published Jul 30, 11:43am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 30, 11:43am ET
Updated Jul 30, 11:55am ET
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| Atlanta Braves | -148 |
| Washington Nationals | +134 |
Foster Griffin owns a 2.76 ERA this season, but his 3.98 FIP says that number flatters him by more than a run. His last three starts change the read entirely. His FIP over that stretch sits at 2.33, genuinely excellent form that argues he has earned the good results lately rather than lucked into them.
Washington backs him with a .774 team OPS, a 45-point edge over Atlanta, and the Nationals are 6-4 over their last ten games. Their bullpen is the weak link, running a 5.73 FIP with a 20.5 percent strikeout rate that trails Atlanta's relief corps by a wide margin.
Bryce Elder carries a 3.96 ERA and a 4.51 FIP, an already middling season line. His last three starts are far worse. His FIP over that stretch has ballooned to 7.75, a steep decline that looks like a genuine warning sign rather than a rough afternoon or two.
Atlanta counters with a .729 team OPS and is also 6-4 over its last ten games. Where the Braves separate themselves is the bullpen, a 3.96 FIP with a 24 percent strikeout rate, a real 1.77 edge in FIP over Washington's relief corps.
Griffin's 2.76 ERA overstates how well he has actually pitched this season. Atlanta's bullpen is a real weapon late if this game stays close, a 1.77 gap in FIP over Washington's relief corps. Those are legitimate reasons for caution. But Washington's lineup carries a clear edge at .774 team OPS. Elder is also in the middle of a genuine slide, with his FIP over his last three starts ballooning to 7.75. That kind of collapse is a warning sign, not a blip. At plus money, this is a fair price for a game that is close to even.
Nationals.
Pick: Washington Nationals +134
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Pick
Washington Nationals +134
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