Published Aug 5, 5:19pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Aug 5, 5:19pm ET
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| Atlanta Braves | -162 |
| Miami Marlins | +134 |
Janson Junk takes a 4.58 ERA and 4.29 FIP into Thursday's start for the Miami Marlins, and every version of his season line tells the same story: the ERA, the FIP, and his last three starts at a matching 4.25 FIP all agree he's a consistent, middle-of-the-rotation arm. By season FIP alone, he's actually a shade better than the pitcher on the other side.
Miami's .731 team OPS is almost identical to Atlanta's .733, and the Marlins have won six of their last ten games. Their bullpen backs that up with a 3.65 FIP and a 24.3% strikeout rate, both essentially even with Atlanta's relief group, which sits at 3.70 FIP and a 24.2% strikeout rate of its own.
Martín Pérez has a 3.24 ERA and 4.34 FIP this season, with the ERA overstating his work by 1.10 runs, a wider gap than Junk's. But his last three starts have been sharp at a 3.65 FIP, and that recent form, not his season-long FIP, is the actual case for Atlanta tonight.
Atlanta's .733 team OPS is two points better than Miami's, close enough to call even, and the bullpens are separated by just 0.05 of FIP. What tips this matchup is recent form and the calendar: the Braves have won seven of their last ten games to Miami's six, and they get to do it at home.
Junk is marginally the better arm by season FIP, the lineups are two points of OPS apart, and the bullpens are all but identical. Atlanta's case comes down to Pérez's sharper recent form, home field, and a better last-ten record.
Braves.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -162
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Pick
Atlanta Braves -162
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