Published Jul 10, 2:44pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 10, 2:44pm ET
Updated Jul 10, 2:44pm ET
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| Miami Marlins | -152 |
| Cleveland Guardians | +118 |
Tanner Bibee is 2-9 with a 4.06 ERA. His FIP of 4.92 says he has been pitching worse than that ERA indicates, and his last-three FIP of 6.03 confirms he is in a genuine cold stretch right now. The season line is not pretty and the recent form is worse. He is walking into loanDepot park against a Marlins team that has been one of the hottest clubs in baseball, and the mound is not where Cleveland is going to find its edge today.
Cleveland at .679 OPS is the weaker offensive unit in this game. Their bullpen FIP of 3.93 with a 25.8% strikeout rate is solid, but the Guardians are 4-6 over their last ten and their lineup is not built to keep pace with what Miami has been doing lately.
Eury Pérez is 5-6 with a 3.84 ERA. His FIP of 4.48 and last-three FIP of 8.18 say he has cooled off just as sharply as Bibee, and being honest about that matters. This is not a game where Miami holds the pitching advantage. Both starters are trending the wrong way, which pushes the outcome toward the team-level factors, and that is exactly where the Marlins separate.
Miami at .745 OPS holds a .066 OPS lineup edge, the largest on today's board. The Marlins are 8-2 over their last ten, the best form of any team playing today, and their bullpen FIP of 3.38 with a 26.1% strikeout rate is the better backend. When both starters are shaky, the deeper lineup and the sharper bullpen decide it.
Both starters are cold, so this pick is not about the mound. It is about a Marlins lineup that holds the biggest OPS edge on the board, an 8-2 recent run against Cleveland's 4-6, and a bullpen better equipped to close out a tight game. Every team-level metric points to Miami. Take the Marlins.
Marlins.
Pick: Miami Marlins -152
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Pick
Miami Marlins -152
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