- From Kauffman Stadium, it’s Cubs vs Royals in the 2nd of their 3-game series
- Chicago sends newly acquired Clay Holmes to the hill
- Kansas City starts veteran righty Seth Lugo
Clay Holmes is Scheduled to Make His 1st Start for the Cubs
The Cubs traded for Clay Holmes from the Mets just as the veteran righty was completing his rehab from a fractured right fibula suffered in May against the Yankees, ironically, another of his former teams. To get Holmes and Tyrone Taylor at the MLB trade deadline, Chicago surrendered one of their top prospects, infielder Jefferson Rojas.
Before the injury, Holmes was having an All-Star quality season, his second since transitioning to the starting rotation as one of the few Mets experiments over the past two years that worked.
In 9 starts, Holmes had a 1.9 bWAR and a 2.39 ERA. Over 52.2 innings, he’s allowed 40 hits, 14 earned runs, and 3 homers, walking 18 and striking out 45.
At the plate, Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the majors in bWAR at 7.3. He also leads in rOBA at .405. With a .937 OPS, 26 homers, and 29 stolen bases, as well as Gold Glove defense in center field, he might win the MVP.
Chicago hits plenty of home runs, but does not hit for a high average. Alex Bregman’s numbers are trending upward with an OPS now above .720. Seiya Suzuki has an .840 OPS and 19 home runs. Dansby Swanson’s average is also moving up toward .220, which is a good thing considering he spent much of the season at .200 or lower.
Against Seth Lugo, Suzuki is 2 for 9 with a home run. Crow-Armstrong is 1 for 5 with a triple. Swanson is 3 for 20 with a double. Bregman is 3 for 12 with 2 doubles. Michael Busch is 1 for 4 with a single.
Lugo is Coming Off a Bad Start in Colorado
The Royals would almost certainly have been better off having traded Seth Lugo. But they held onto him and he’s under contract for 2027. He’s been inconsistent this season, occasionally good, occasionally bad.
In his last start in Colorado, he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings against the Rockies. His three starts before that were quite good, tossing 19 innings, allowing 13 hits, and 6 earned runs against the Padres, Giants, and Twins.
For the season, he has a 0.5 bWAR and a 4.41 ERA. In 128.2 innings, he’s surrendered 134 hits, 63 earned runs, and 15 homers, walking 45 and striking out 99.
The Royals are playing out a disastrous season. But their core is still young and talented. They’ve just had a terrible year. Carter Jensen is batting .228 with 15 homers. Vinnie Pasquantino is batting .232 in 79 games. Bobby Witt Jr. missed time with a back issue, but is off the injured list. He leads the AL in stolen bases and has an OPS of .813. They could have a rapid turnaround in 2027. But for now, they’ve been awful.
Against Holmes, Salvador Perez is 2 for 6 with a home run. John Rave is 1 for 2 with a double. Witt is 0 for 8 with a walk and a strikeout. Kyle Isbel is 3 for 7 with 3 singles.
Cubs vs Royals Pick
The Royals are reeling and have been all season. Chicago is creeping up on the 1st place Brewers in the NL Central and made key moves to boost their starting rotation with Holmes and Kevin Gausman.
For this matchup, Holmes should not be expected to give them significant length. He could show some rust. There is an opening for the Royals to win if Lugo is on his game. The problem is, he’s struggled for chunks of the season.
Chicago will win this one behind Holmes and their bullpen.
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Pick
Chicago Cubs -160
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