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Cubs vs Orioles MLB Odds, Picks, and Predictions (Jul 9)

Published Jul 8, 4:52pm ET by

Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer

Last updated Jul 8, 4:52pm ET

Pick status
baseball

Updated Jul 8, 4:52pm ET

  • The Chicago Cubs and Baltimore Orioles continue their series Thursday night at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
  • David Peterson takes the mound for Chicago.
  • Trevor Rogers gets the start for Baltimore.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago Cubs Overview Watch On: MLB TV

DATE & TIME

Thursday, Jul 9, 2026 · 6:35 PM ET
Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Chicago Cubs
GAME ODDS
BetOnline
Baltimore Orioles -126
Chicago Cubs +114

Peterson Has Been Struggling and the Numbers on Both Sides of His Line Confirm It

David Peterson is 4-7 with a 6.75 ERA. His FIP of 4.13 says he has been pitching better than those results indicate, a significant ERA-FIP gap that suggests some bad luck in the mix. His last-three FIP of 5.70 has closed that gap considerably. Whatever was suppressing the surface number earlier in the season has faded, and his recent starts are now trending toward the ERA rather than the FIP. He is going into Baltimore against a pitcher who has been going in the opposite direction.

Chicago at .747 OPS holds the lineup edge. The Cubs are 7-3 over their last ten, which is the most significant form argument on the road side. Their bullpen FIP of 5.18 with a 20.1% strikeout rate is the shakier backend. Chicago is a good team running hot right now. Tonight's case against them is almost entirely the pitching matchup.

Rogers Has Been Getting Sharper and Is the Best Pitcher in This Game Tonight

Trevor Rogers is 6-7 with a 4.70 ERA. His FIP of 4.06 tracks reasonably close to that number, with no dramatic gap between results and process on the season. His last-three FIP of 2.44 is where the story changes. He has been genuinely dominant in his recent outings, and his underlying quality on a start-by-start basis has been the best it has been all season. Baltimore's bullpen FIP of 3.75 with a 23.9% strikeout rate is also the stronger backend in this game.

The Orioles lineup at .711 OPS loses the matchup to Chicago. Baltimore is 4-6 over their last ten. The case for the home side is Rogers plus a bullpen advantage, going against a visiting starter whose recent form has been rough.

Cubs vs Orioles Pick

Chicago is 7-3 in their last ten, and that matters. So does a 3.26-run FIP gap between the starters over the last three outings, and a Baltimore bullpen that is considerably deeper than Chicago's. Rogers' recent form against Peterson's is the sharpest variable in this game. Take Baltimore.

Orioles.

Pick: Baltimore Orioles -126

Pick
Baltimore Orioles -126
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