Published Jul 30, 10:43pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 30, 10:43pm ET
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Updated Jul 30, 10:43pm ET
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| Toronto Blue Jays | -160 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | +145 |
The Cardinals moved righty Kyle Leahy to the rotation this season after spending the first two full years of his career as a reliever. He was generally effective in that role. This year, they transitioned him to the rotation and he's been very good, particularly over the last month.
Against the Reds in his last start, he tossed 6 innings, allowed 2 earned runs and 6 hits, walked 1 and struck out 9. For the season, he has a 1.9 bWAR and a 3.55 ERA. In 101.1 innings, he's allowed 102 hits, 40 earned runs, and 12 homers, walking 34 and striking out 88.
The Cardinals are at .500 after hovering around playoff contention early in the season. Now, they can freely make strategic subtractions and additions at the MLB trade deadline and not put forth the pretense of "going for it."
Jordan Walker is having his breakout season with an .838 OPS and 22 homers. JJ Wetherholt just signed a contract extension and has a .745 OPS and 16 homers. He's stolen 12 bases without being caught. Alec Burleson has 15 homers and an .801 OPS. The rest of the Cards' offense has been a disappointment.
Against Dylan Cease, Nelson Velazquez is 2 for 7 with a home run. Walker is 1 for 5 with a double. Masyn Winn is 1 for 4 with a single. Ivan Herrera is 4 for 7 with 2 doubles. Burleson is 1 for 5 with a double.
Dylan Cease was an All-Star this year and has been one of the few Blue Jays who has lived up to expectations in 2026. Against the Red Sox in his last start, he pitched a complete game, 1-hit shutout, walking 3 and striking out 12.
This came two starts later from him throwing 8 shutout innings and allowing 1 hit against the Giants.
Overall, he has a 4.0 bWAR and a 2.46 ERA. He's in the middle of the American League Cy Young Award race. Over 113.1 innings, he's allowed 75 hits, 31 earned runs, and 7 homers, walking 48 and striking out 167.
The question with the 50-59 Blue Jays is which players will be traded and which will stay. Pitchers like Jeff Hoffman and Kevin Gausman are almost assuredly getting traded. Outfielder Daulton Varsho and DH George Springer could go.
Toronto's offense has been a disappointment, particularly star 1st baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has a .702 OPS and only 6 homers. Rookie Kazuma Okamoto has 24 homers and a .761 OPS; he's lived up to what the club hoped for when signing him.
For the Blue Jays against Leahy, Alejandro Kirk is 1 for 1 with a single. Springer is 1 for 1 with a single. Ernie Clement is 0 for 1. Andres Gimenez is 0 for 1. Myles Straw is 0 for 1.
Both teams are looking toward the future and will be selling at the deadline. The difference is that the Cardinals made it known before the season that they were using this as something of a competitive bridge year; the Blue Jays were trying to finish what they started in 2025, get back to the World Series, and win it.
For this matchup, one of the few Jays who's lived up to the hype, Cease, will be on the hill. Leahy has been good this season, but he's facing a CYA contender. Toronto will take the first game of the series behind Cease.
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Pick
Toronto Blue Jays -166
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