Published Jul 11, 3:42pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 11, 3:42pm ET
Updated Jul 11, 3:42pm ET
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| Pittsburgh Pirates | +115 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | -135 |
Jacob Misiorowski is 10-4 with a 1.62 ERA. His FIP of 2.14 backs the surface line, and even with a last-three FIP of 4.37 that shows a slight recent cooling, his season body of work is among the best of any starter in the National League. A cool stretch for Misiorowski still means a pitcher who has been dominant for most of the year, and he brings that profile into a doubleheader nightcap against a Pittsburgh lineup that will have already played a full game earlier in the day.
Milwaukee at .736 OPS is close to Pittsburgh in the lineup. The Brewers are 6-4 over their last ten, the better form, and own the best record in the National League. Their bullpen FIP of 3.97 with a 21.8% strikeout rate is the stronger backend, which matters in the second game of a doubleheader when relief arms get stretched thin.
Paul Skenes is 7-8 with a 3.84 ERA. His FIP of 3.02 says he has been pitching better than that record indicates, the victim of a Pittsburgh team that has not scored much behind him. His last-three FIP of 3.95 shows a slight recent cooling from his usual standard. Skenes is one of the best young arms in baseball and on most nights he is the story of any game he pitches. Tonight he runs into a pitcher having an even better season and a matchup structure that does not favor the home side.
Pittsburgh at .764 OPS holds a .028 OPS lineup edge, the one clear advantage for the Pirates. They are 5-5 over their last ten. Their bullpen FIP of 4.58 with a 23.8% strikeout rate is the weaker backend, a real concern in the second half of a doubleheader.
Pittsburgh holds a slight lineup edge and home field, and Skenes is good enough to win any game he starts. But Misiorowski has been the better pitcher this season, Milwaukee has the deeper bullpen in a doubleheader where that matters, and the Brewers are the hotter team. At -135 the price fits the better side. Take Milwaukee.
Brewers.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -135
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Pick
Milwaukee Brewers -135
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