Published Jul 10, 2:41pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 10, 2:41pm ET
Updated Jul 10, 2:51pm ET
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| Pittsburgh Pirates | +110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | -130 |
Shane Drohan is 4-2 with a 2.97 ERA. His FIP of 3.24 sits close to that number, and his last-three FIP of 3.34 shows the form holding steady. Drohan has been one of the more consistent arms in the Milwaukee rotation, and he is the clear advantage on the mound in this matchup by a full run and a half of FIP. That gap is the driving reason Milwaukee is favored on the road.
Milwaukee at .735 OPS is close to Pittsburgh in the lineup. The Brewers are 7-3 over their last ten, the hotter team by a clear margin, and own the best record in the National League. Their bullpen FIP of 3.93 with a 21.4% strikeout rate is the better backend.
Bubba Chandler is 3-8 with a 4.82 ERA. His FIP of 4.74 tracks close to that number, and his last-three FIP of 4.62 shows no meaningful recent improvement. Chandler has had a rough season on a Pittsburgh team that has not given him much support, and he is going against a steadier, sharper pitcher today. The Pirates need their lineup to carry them because the mound is not where their edge is.
Pittsburgh at .763 OPS holds a .028 OPS lineup edge, the one clear advantage for the home side. The Pirates are 5-5 over their last ten. Their bullpen FIP of 4.58 with a 23.9% strikeout rate is the weaker backend. Home field and the lineup are the case for Pittsburgh, going against a pitching and form disadvantage.
Pittsburgh holds a slight lineup edge and home field, but Milwaukee has the significantly better starter, the better bullpen, and the hotter form at 7-3. Drohan against Chandler is a full run and a half of FIP separation, and the Brewers are the stronger team by nearly every measure. At -130 the price is fair for the better side. Take Milwaukee.
Brewers.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -130
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Pick
Milwaukee Brewers -130
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