- The Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers meet Saturday at Dodger Stadium.
- Jacob Misiorowski takes the mound for Milwaukee.
- Justin Wrobleski gets the start for Los Angeles.
The Milwaukee Brewers visit Dodger Stadium Saturday as the favorite on the road, and the pitching matchup is the reason why.
Misiorowski Remains Dominant Even in a Slightly Lesser Stretch
Jacob Misiorowski carries a 1.76 ERA and 2.23 FIP this season, with the FIP just 0.47 above the ERA. That gap means the ERA flatters him only slightly, and this remains a genuinely excellent season. His last three starts: one earned run in five innings with 12 strikeouts, two earned in seven with 10 strikeouts, and three earned in six with nine strikeouts. That is a small step back from his season pace, but it is still dominant work.
Milwaukee’s lineup carries a .730 OPS, and the Brewers have gone 6-4 over their last ten games. Neither number is exceptional, but both hold up fine against most pitching staffs. Still, that form is part of why this game is not just about the arm on the mound.
Wrobleski’s Last Month Explains the Price
Justin Wrobleski carries a 3.44 ERA and 4.20 FIP this season, with the FIP 0.76 above the ERA. That gap means the ERA flatters him on the season already, before accounting for his last month. His last three starts: five earned runs in six innings, seven earned in 4.1, and three earned in 3.1. That’s fifteen earned runs in 13.2 innings, and nine of them came by way of the home run.
Los Angeles’s lineup carries a .766 OPS, 36 points ahead of Milwaukee’s mark, with the Dodgers 4-6 over their last ten. Milwaukee counters in the bullpen: a 3.70 FIP against Los Angeles’s 4.44, a 0.74-run gap. Milwaukee’s relievers strike out fewer hitters, though, 21.3 percent against 24.3 percent, the one place the gap runs the other way.
Brewers vs Dodgers Pick
This is the cleanest pitching mismatch on the board, and the home run column explains why. Wrobleski has allowed nine home runs in his last three starts, failing to complete five innings twice and leaving a shaky bullpen exposed. Misiorowski remains dominant even in a lesser stretch, and the gap between these two arms is wide. The honest counterweight is the Los Angeles lineup, a real margin better and capable of covering for a struggling starter. Take Milwaukee.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -142
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Pick
Milwaukee Brewers -142
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