Published Jul 8, 9:37pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 8, 9:37pm ET
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Updated Jul 8, 9:37pm ET
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| St. Louis Cardinals | +110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | -121 |
The Brewers have opened up a lead in the NL Central and will be looking for upgrades at the upcoming MLB trade deadline. They've laid down the law against the upstart Cardinals in this 5-game series, which was to be expected given St. Louis openly entering the season in a transition year. Still, St. Louis has played over its head and are in the playoff hunt. They are still not in the Brewers' class.
In the final game of the series, Milwaukee sends second-year righty Logan Henderson to the hill. Henderson has been out since late May with a lower back strain. Before that, he'd posted a 0.8 bWAR and a 2.74 ERA in 5 starts. Over 23 innings, he's allowed 18 hits, 7 earned runs, and 2 homers, walking 6 and striking out 30. These are excellent numbers and a great follow-up on his rookie season when he had a 1.78 ERA in 5 starts.
Jake Bauers surprisingly leads the team in home runs and has an OPS above .860. Jackson Chourio's OPS is approaching .850. Broce Turang has 12 homers and an OPS over .810. Milwaukee's offense is always more than the sum of its parts.
Against Andre Pallante, William Contreras is 3 for 14 with a double and a home run. Bauers is 3 for 5 with 2 singles and a double. Chourio is 4 for 8 with a triple. Sal Frelick is 2 for 12 with a double. Andrew Vaughn is 1 for 3 with a homer. Christian Yelich is 2 for 12 with a home run.
Regardless of how the rest of this season goes for the Cardinals, their starting rotation has a solid foundation with Michael McGreevy and Andre Pallante.
Pallante starts the final game of the 5-game series with the Brewers. He is coming off 5.2 shutout innings against the Cubs in a 17-1 St. Louis win. For the season, he has a 1.8 bWAR and a 3.60 ERA. In 95 innings, he's allowed 89 hits, 38 earned runs, and 9 homers, walking 27 and striking out 70.
Jordan Walker's breakout season continues with an OPS approaching .890 and over 20 homers. Alec Burleson is over .800 with 14 homers. Ivan Herrera has an OPS approaching .790.
The Cardinals have never faced Henderson in the majors.
The Brewers have established their dominance over the Cardinals in this 5-game series. Now they try to send St. Louis limping away amid the reality that they are not yet ready to contend for the NL Central title.
Henderson is returning from a back injury, so don't expect him to be in the game for more than 85 or so pitches. Pallante has been very good this season. The teams' offenses are comparable, but the Brewers are better at taking advantage of opportunities.
For this matchup, Milwaukee will take the final game of the series behind Henderson and their bullpen and leave St. Louis to look toward the future.
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Pick
Milwaukee Brewers -121
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