Published Jul 5, 4:19pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 5, 4:19pm ET
Updated Jul 5, 4:19pm ET
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| St. Louis Cardinals | -105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | -115 |
Shane Drohan is 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA. His FIP of 3.22 sits almost on top of his ERA — a clean line where results and process match. His last-three FIP of 4.48 is the one honest concern, a meaningful step back from his season baseline. He has not been bad. He has not been as good as the first half suggested, and he is walking into Busch Stadium against a Cardinals starter who has been one of the best arms in baseball over the past month.
Milwaukee at .736 OPS holds the lineup edge. Their bullpen FIP of 3.93 with a 21.5% strikeout rate is the stronger backend. The Brewers are 6-4 over their last ten, owners of the best record in the NL Central by a significant margin.
Dustin May is 5-6 with a 4.80 ERA. His last-three FIP of 1.53 is the number that matters most tonight. Three weeks ago, he threw a complete game one-hit shutout against the Padres, nine innings, nine strikeouts, one base runner. On May 27 he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Brewers before Milwaukee rallied for the win. He has been throwing the best baseball of his career recently, and he is doing it against the same lineup he nearly no-hit six weeks ago.
St. Louis at .721 OPS loses the lineup matchup to Milwaukee. Their bullpen FIP of 4.37 is the weaker backend. The Cardinals are 5-5 over their last ten. The case for St. Louis tonight runs almost entirely through May, and his recent form makes that a compelling enough reason.
Milwaukee has the lineup, the bullpen, and the better season-long record. May nearly no-hit this lineup six weeks ago and is currently pitching at a 1.53 FIP over his last three starts. Drohan has been cooling. The team-level edges lean Milwaukee, but the mound is the sharpest variable tonight and it cuts the other way.
Brewers.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -115
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Pick
Milwaukee Brewers -115
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