Published Jul 30, 11:39am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 30, 11:39am ET
Updated Jul 30, 11:59am ET
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| Los Angeles Angels | +159 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | -183 |
Shane Drohan carries a 3.51 ERA and a 3.05 FIP, a season line that already leans in his favor. His last three starts have been even better. His FIP over that stretch sits at 2.39, clearly his sharpest form of the year and a real improvement on an already solid baseline.
Milwaukee backs him with a .738 team OPS, a 37-point edge over Los Angeles, and the Brewers arrive hot at 6-4 over their last ten games. Their bullpen adds to the case, running a 3.93 FIP with a 21.9 percent strikeout rate that beats the Angels' relief corps by FIP.
Ryan Johnson has a 7.34 ERA and a 6.32 FIP, numbers that agree with each other for once, and not in a good way. His last three starts offer no relief. His FIP over that stretch sits at 6.38, essentially flat with his season mark and no sign of a turnaround.
Los Angeles counters with a .701 team OPS, well behind Milwaukee, and the Angels have gone just 4-6 over their last ten games. Their bullpen is the one bright spot, striking out 26.7 percent of hitters even though its 4.23 FIP still trails Milwaukee's relief corps.
The Angels' bullpen strikes out 26.7 percent of hitters, the best mark of any relief corps in this game. That unit could make a late lead uncomfortable if this stays close. That is the one real card in Los Angeles' hand. Everything else points to Milwaukee. Drohan is pitching better than his already solid season line, while Johnson's last three starts have been just as rough as the rest of his year. Milwaukee also holds the better lineup and the better bullpen by FIP, and the Brewers arrive with the better recent form as well. This is about as clean a case as the slate offers.
Brewers.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -183
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Pick
Milwaukee Brewers -183
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