Published Jul 7, 11:09am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 7, 11:09am ET
Updated Jul 7, 11:09am ET
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| Pittsburgh Pirates | -142 |
| Atlanta Braves | +118 |
Grant Holmes is 5-4 with a 3.83 ERA. His FIP of 3.26 says the results are conservative; he has been pitching better than the ERA shows. His last-three FIP of 2.01 is the sharpest recent number for any visiting pitcher on tonight's board. He carried a no-hit bid into the sixth inning against Arizona in April, and the current stretch has him pitching at a level that justifies ignoring the team's cold form entirely. Atlanta is 4-6 over its last ten, but Holmes is not the reason for that record.
The Braves lineup at .727 OPS holds a modest edge. Their bullpen FIP of 3.72 with a 24.2% strikeout rate is the better backend by a meaningful margin. Atlanta has enough construction to win road games when Holmes pitches this way.
Jared Jones is 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA. He missed the first two months of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery and only recently returned to the rotation. His June 4 outing against Houston was encouraging — five innings, one run, the win. The process since then has been inconsistent, which is expected for a pitcher working back from major arm surgery. Pittsburgh has him because he is talented, not because the numbers say he is ready to beat a pitcher posting a 2.01 FIP.
The Pirates lineup at .762 OPS is the best unit in this game. Pittsburgh is 5-5 over its last ten. Their bullpen FIP of 4.23 with a 23.9% strikeout rate is solid. The Pirates' path to winning runs through the lineup doing enough damage against Holmes to outpace what Jones allows on his end.
Pittsburgh has the better lineup and home field. Atlanta has the significantly better pitcher. Holmes at +118 against a Jones still working back from Tommy John is where the value lives on tonight's board. Take the Braves.
Braves.
Pick: Atlanta Braves +118
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Pick
Atlanta Braves +118
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