Published Jul 10, 2:47pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 10, 2:47pm ET
Updated Jul 10, 2:48pm ET
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| St. Louis Cardinals | -111 |
| Atlanta Braves | -111 |
Reynaldo López is 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA. His FIP of 4.28 says the results are running a little ahead of the underlying process, but his last-three FIP of 3.00 shows the recent form is sharp and consistent. López has been a reliable arm for Atlanta, and he is the clear advantage in this pitching matchup by a wide margin. When one starter is this much steadier than the other, it tilts an otherwise even game.
Atlanta at .728 OPS holds the lineup edge. Their bullpen FIP of 3.69 with a 24.3% strikeout rate is the stronger backend. The Braves are 5-5 over their last ten and are picking up a second straight game in this series against a Cardinals team that has been trending down.
Matthew Liberatore is 4-6 with a 5.34 ERA. His FIP of 5.13 tracks close to that number, which means the poor results are not bad luck, they are the actual quality. His last-three FIP of 5.24 shows no recent improvement. Liberatore has been one of the weaker rotation arms in the NL this season, and there is no hot streak or underlying signal to suggest a turnaround is coming tonight against a lineup as deep as Atlanta's.
St. Louis at .713 OPS loses the lineup matchup to the Braves. Their bullpen FIP of 4.17 with a 20.0% strikeout rate is the weaker backend. The Cardinals are 4-6 over their last ten. The gap between López and Liberatore on the mound is the sharpest variable in this game, and it runs against the home side.
This is priced as a coin flip at -111 each side, which does not reflect the gap in this game. López has been steady while Liberatore has struggled all year, Atlanta holds the lineup and bullpen edges, and the Braves are the better team across the board. At a pick'em number, taking the clearly stronger side is the value. Take Atlanta.
Braves.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -111
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Pick
Atlanta Braves -111
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