Published Aug 5, 5:28pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Aug 5, 5:28pm ET
Updated Aug 5, 5:32pm ET
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| Chicago Cubs | -101 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | -119 |
Dylan Cease takes a 2.41 ERA and 2.35 FIP into Thursday's start for the Toronto Blue Jays, the best individual line either team will throw out this year. His last three starts have stayed right at that level, a 2.91 FIP with no sign of a letdown, and the gap between him and Chicago's starter runs to 1.81 runs of FIP. This is a pitching mismatch dressed up as a game.
Toronto's .679 team OPS is the weakest number in this matchup, 78 points behind Chicago's, and it's the honest case against the Blue Jays. Both clubs are 6-4 over their last ten games, a wash. The bullpen tilts back toward Toronto, a 3.23 FIP that's 1.58 runs better than Chicago's with a strikeout rate nearly three points higher. The lineup isn't walking through that door tonight.
David Peterson carries a 5.52 ERA and 4.16 FIP this season, with the ERA overstating the damage by 1.36 runs. He's found real form since Chicago acquired him from the Mets in a late-June trade, and his last three starts have produced a 3.42 FIP, a clear step up from his season number. He isn't matching Cease tonight. He also isn't the pitcher his ERA makes him look like.
Chicago's .757 team OPS is the best number on the field, 78 points clear of Toronto's, and the Cubs are getting it at home. Their bullpen is the soft spot, a 4.81 FIP that trails Toronto's by 1.58 runs with a lower strikeout rate. Chicago is also 6-4 over its last ten, matching Toronto's form exactly. The lineup and the ballpark are real advantages. They're competing against the widest pitching gap on the board.
Chicago's case is real, a 78-point OPS edge at home against a Toronto lineup that's been the weak link on this roster all year. But Cease is pitching 1.81 runs of FIP better than Peterson even with Peterson trending up, and Toronto's bullpen adds another 1.58 runs of separation on top of that. That's too much pitching to give away for a lineup gap alone. Take Toronto.
Blue Jays.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -119
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Pick
Toronto Blue Jays -119
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