Published Aug 4, 6:37pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Aug 4, 6:37pm ET
Updated Aug 4, 6:37pm ET
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| Houston Astros | -115 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | -105 |
Dylan Cease takes a 2.41 ERA and 2.35 FIP into Wednesday's start for the Toronto Blue Jays, the best individual number on the mound in either dugout. His last three starts have stayed right there at a 2.91 FIP, no signs of a letdown, and the gap between him and Houston's starter runs to 2.13 runs of FIP. There isn't a cleaner pitching mismatch anywhere on this slate.
Toronto's .682 team OPS is the weakest number in this matchup, 56 points behind Houston's, and it's the honest weakness in this pick. The Blue Jays have won six of their last ten games, and the bullpen is a real asset behind Cease, a 3.14 FIP that's 1.11 runs better than Houston's relief group with a strikeout rate nearly a point and a half higher. The lineup isn't the reason to back Toronto. The arm is.
Hunter Brown carries a 3.42 ERA and 4.48 FIP this season, the weaker line of the two starters by 2.13 runs of FIP, but his last three outings have been sharper at a 3.78 FIP, a real step forward from his season number. He isn't in Cease's range tonight. He also isn't the pitcher his full-season FIP makes him look like.
Houston's .738 team OPS is the best number on the field, 56 points clear of Toronto's, and the Astros back it up with the better recent form, eight wins in their last ten against Toronto's six. Houston's bullpen sits at a 4.25 FIP, 1.11 runs worse than Toronto's, the one real crack in an otherwise strong roster. This is a lineup-and-form case running straight into an ace.
Houston's case is real, and it isn't a marginal one, a 56-point OPS edge and the better form at eight wins in their last ten against Toronto's six. That's the best argument on the board for the home side. But Cease is pitching 2.13 runs of FIP better than Brown, backed by a bullpen that's sharper by more than a run, and an ace running a 2.91 FIP over his last three starts isn't a matchup to fade just because the other lineup is hotter. Take Toronto.
Blue Jays.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -105
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Pick
Toronto Blue Jays -105
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