Published Jul 7, 11:04am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jul 7, 11:04am ET
Updated Jul 7, 11:04am ET
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| Washington Nationals | -121 |
| Houston Astros | +110 |
Spencer Arrighetti is 7-4 with a 3.81 ERA. His FIP of 4.68 says the results have been better than the underlying quality all season, and his last-three FIP of 8.08 confirms the correction has arrived in force. He struck out 10 Rockies back in April and dominated the Yankees in late April. That version of Arrighetti has not shown up in weeks. He is walking into a road series finale in a ballpark where Washington is 26-15 at home this season.
Houston at .728 OPS loses the lineup matchup to Washington. Their bullpen FIP of 4.13 with a 22.7% strikeout rate is the better backend, which is the main structural argument for the Astros side. Houston is 5-5 over its last ten.
Foster Griffin is 9-2 with a 2.87 ERA. His FIP of 4.31 says the results have been running ahead of the underlying process, which is worth noting honestly. His last-three FIP of 2.89 says the recent form matches the ERA rather than the FIP. He has been generating ground balls and staying out of big innings, and Washington has won behind him consistently. He carries one of the better win rates in the National League into a home start against a struggling starter.
Washington at .756 OPS holds the lineup edge. Their bullpen FIP of 5.60 with a 20.3% strikeout rate is the sharpest counterargument for fading the Nationals. If Griffin exits early, that backend is going to be tested. He is 9-2 because he has not been exiting early.
Washington's bullpen is a real problem and Arrighetti's cold stretch is not a reason to dismiss Houston entirely. But an 8.08 last-three FIP against a pitcher at 2.89 over the same window, with the lineup edge going to the home side, is too clean a case to fade. Take Washington.
Nationals.
Pick: Washington Nationals -121
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Pick
Washington Nationals -121
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