Rays vs Blue Jays Pick: 2 Teams Treading Water Try to Gain Traction (May 14)

• Our Rays vs Blue Jays pick gauges 2 teams with preseason playoff hopes struggling to reach and go beyond .500
• A recent run exemplified the Blue Jays’ season as they lost 4 straight to the Guardians and Angels, then won 4 straight over the Angels and Mariners
• The Rays were swept 3 straight by the Phillies before winning 2 of 3 over the Brewers
• Ryan Pepiot starts for the Rays; the Blue Jays send Chris Bassitt to the hill

Reaching .500 Has Been Elusive for the Rays

The Rays started the season by winning four of their first five games, but they have not been above .500 since Apr. 4. Still, they remain within striking distance of first place in the AL East and are a few games behind the similarly mediocre Blue Jays.

Unheralded Ryan Pepiot has been solid for the Rays this season. He has a 2-4 record, but his ERA is a respectable 3.86. In 44.2 innings, he has surrendered 42 hits and 19 earned runs. He has pitched at least 5 innings every start but one and pitched 6 innings in five. His ERA was blown up by a poor start against the Red Sox in which he gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings.

Pepiot has only faced two Blue Jays: Anthony Santander and Daulton Varsho. Varsho is 0 for 4 with a walk and 2 strikeouts. Santander is 1 for 6 with a single and a strikeout.

Several Rays’ starting players are trying to get on track at the plate. Both catchers, Danny Jansen and Ben Rortvedt, are not hitting at all. Jansen is under .200 and Rortvedt is under .100(!). Brandon Lowe is also under .200.

Jonathan Aranda already has a 1.6 bWAR and an OPS approaching 1.000. Junior Caminero leads the team in home runs.

Jays Are in a Similar, Albeit Costlier, Situation as the Rays

The Blue Jays’ payroll dwarfs the Rays’. Toronto’s payroll is 4th in MLB; Tampa’s is 28th. But they are both in the same boat. The Blue Jays’ situation is more precarious with preseason expectations of contending and another poor season in progress, a quarter of the way in.

Veteran Chris Bassitt takes the mound for Toronto. If they don’t get into legitimate contention as the trade deadline approaches, Bassitt’s status as a pending free agent could make him available.

He has a 3.35 ERA this season. In 45.2 innings, he has surrendered 48 hits and 17 earned runs. The righty has been shaky lately, giving up 4 earned runs in three of his last four starts.

For the Rays, if Lowe is going to bust out, it will be against Bassitt. He has 3 home runs in 12 career plate appearances against him. Curtis Mead is 2 for 3 with a home run. Travis Jankowski is 3 for 3, all singles.

The Blue Jays have not hit for the power they were expected to. Santander was the marquee free agent signing, and his batting average is around .200 with an OPS of just over .600. Andres Gimenez is also batting below .200.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an OPS approaching .800 after signing his 14-year, $500 million contract. Bo Bichette is set to be a free agent at the end of the season and has an OPS over .700, but they have combined for fewer than 10 homers. George Springer is having an All-Star season with an OPS above .900 and a 1.0 bWAR.

Rays vs Blue Jays Pick: Tampa Will Hold Toronto Down Behind Pepiot

Bassitt has been getting knocked around in recent starts, and the Blue Jays are not scoring as they need to be. The Rays haven’t played much better, but Pepiot has pitched the better of the two starters and will hold the Jays down for Tampa to take the win.