In mid-March, Marvin Vettori announced he was withdrawing from UFC on ESPN+ 98, which he was supposed to headline with Brendan Allen. As a result, “All In” got himself a new opponent, Chris Curtis.

Actually, “new” is not the right word here because the two have already fought once in 2021. Allen was a huge -357 favorite in that fight, but “The Action Man” beat him by a TKO in the second round.

Fast-forward to April 6, 2024, and it’s time for Allen vs. Curtis 2. Allen is once again the betting favorite, but will we see another upset?

Before Betting on Allen vs. Curtis 2

After losing to Curtis, Allen went on to win the next six fights. Five of those wins happened by submission, proving that he’s an elite grappler. He can definitely beat Curtis by submission, but for that, he needs to get him either in a clinch or take him down.

The problem is that Curtis is phenomenal when it comes to defending against takedowns with a TD defense percentage of 92%. Plus, he’s a guy who lands a huge volume of strikes, thus being able to keep the opponents away from him.

Allen should be worried about this as he hasn’t fought too many great strikers lately. In fact, each of the last six fighters he defeated has a lower significant strike average than Curtis who lands 5.96 punches and kicks a minute. Those fighters are namely:

  • Paul Craig (2.42 significant strikes per minute)
  • Bruno Silva (4.43)
  • Andre Muniz (1.97)
  • Krzysztof Jotko (2.98)
  • Jacob Malkoun (3.89)
  • Sam Alvey (3.28)

The good news for Allan’s fans is that he’s probably improved his striking since the previous fight with Curtis. The thing is that he was preparing for a fight with Vettori whose strongest weapon is striking.

Although he’s not as proactive as Curtis when it comes to striking, “The Italian Dream” does land 4.56 significant strikes per fight.

Allen vs. Curtis 2 Offshore Odds & Pick

Offshore SportsbookBrendan AllenChris Curtis

Chris Curtis last fought on January 20, so the fact that he didn’t have a full camp to prepare for the UFC on ESPN+ 98 doesn’t mean that he’s out of shape. Actually, it’s just the opposite. He’s ready to go to war with Allen, but can he win again?

We think he can as he’s exactly the type of a fighter that Allen does not do great against. Curtis is a fantastic striker who’s incredibly hard to take down, meaning that we might see a striking duel on April 6. If that happens, it’s only logical to assume Curtis will win it.

Pick: Chris Curtis