Published May 24, 10:33am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 24, 10:33am ET
Updated May 24, 10:33am ET
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| Cincinnati Reds | -122 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | +101 |
Matthew Liberatore has a 4.91 FIP this season. That is not a number that inspires confidence. What it is, is considerably better than what Cincinnati is running out on the other side, and in a game where neither starter is clean, the gap between the two becomes the entire argument.
Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt have been the Cardinals' most reliable producers, and the lineup has shown enough consistency on the road this month to make Liberatore's outings winnable. Great American Ball Park plays big; runs will come from both sides. St. Louis just needs more of them.
Brady Singer has a 6.61 FIP. That is not a rough patch; that is the worst underlying pitching number of any starter going today across the entire league. Whatever his ERA shows, the contact quality and walk rates behind it have been genuinely bad. He gives up runs because he is pitching like a pitcher who gives up runs.
Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart give Cincinnati a dangerous top of the order — De La Cruz is having the best offensive season of his career and Stewart has been one of the better rookies in the NL this year. The Reds are in first place and their lineup is capable of winning this game on its own. The problem is Singer has to hold St. Louis to a lesser number than a 6.61 FIP pitcher typically does.
Singer's 6.61 FIP is the story. Liberatore at 4.91 is not good, but a 1.70 FIP edge in a park that produces offense is a real advantage, and the Cardinals are available at plus money in a game where the market barely favors Cincinnati.
Getting +101 on a team with the clear pitching edge at a coin-flip price is straightforward value. The Reds' lineup is real, but so is the gap between these two pitchers. St. Louis tonight.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals +101
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Pick
St. Louis Cardinals +101
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